Would you buy a second hand car off these boys?

Aspirations have changed at Bolton since the dark days of Gary Megson. The arrival of Owen Coyle followed by our impressive start to the season had the more optimistic of us counting air miles and dusting off our Bulgarian phrase-books. Even when European qualification had passed us by – embarrassingly so in the cup – a top half finish was still on the cards right up to the end of the season.

Never mind. Coyle’s inherited Megson’s bunch of cloggers. Once he’s had the summer to make serious changes, we’ll be back to chasing Europe again. Surely relegation battles are a thing of the past? Aren’t they?

Maybe not. Our form after Christmas was relegation-standard, and the end of the season – five defeats on the bounce – was abysmal. It wouldn’t be the first time poor form at the end of one season has carried over to the next. Add to that our tough start to the season and it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see us rock-bottom after the first seven games. We’ll have easier runs to follow, but everything looks that bit tougher if you’re sat at the bottom and confidence may have taken a bit of a battering.

So how relevant is end-of-season form to performance in next campaign? Let’s hope the answer is ‘not very’. Only two previous premier league teams have ever lost their last five matches: Sunderland in 2003 and Derby in 2008. Both teams finished bottom and were relegated. Sunderland set a record low points tally of nineteen. Derby set a new one with eleven. We are therefore proud holders of another record – the only premier league side to have lost their last five games without being relegated.

So are we realistic relegation candidates, and if so who else is? Maybe recent history can give us some pointers.

Teams relegated from the premier league over the last ten years generally fit into one or more of the following categories:

1. Newly promoted

The omens aren't good, Neil

The most obvious category. Thirteen of the last thirty relegated sides were newly promoted, and not since the class of 2001 – Bolton, Blackburn, and Fulham, who are all still there – have all three promoted sides stayed up. Looking on the bright side, it’s 1998 since all three promoted teams were relegated (Bolton, Barnsley, and Crystal Palace), so maybe at least one will survive?

Candidates: QPR, Norwich, Swansea

2. Narrowly avoided relegation
Five of the last ten years’ relegated sides – including each of the last two years – finished in 17th place the previous year, so history suggests there’s a 50:50 chance Wolves will be in the mix next season.
For the record those relegated sides were Derby, Sunderland, West Brom, Hull and West Ham, and those that have survived were Fulham, Wigan, Portsmouth, Everton, and Bolton.

Although no team finishing 16th has been relegated the next year, the closeness of this year’s relegation scrap suggests that the other last day survivors, Wigan and Blackburn, could also be in the mix.
Candidates: Wolves.
Possible: Wigan, Blackburn

3. Second season
Five of the 30 slots have gone to teams ‘enjoying’ their second season in the top flight. In the case of West Brom and Hull, they had also narrowly avoided relegation the previous season, but the other three – Ipswich, Reading, and Birmingham – had finished in the top half.

Newcastle and West Brom are the two clubs facing their second season. West Brom have steadied the ship under Roy Hodgson and will be targeting mid-table at least. Of the two, Newcastle would be the more likely candidates for me, but only because of indications of internal problems and my belief that Pardew is a poor manager, although they should have the finances to build a decent side after the sale of Andy Carroll.

Candidates: Newcastle and West Brom.

4. Finished the previous season badly
Accounts for six of the thirty relegation slots in the last ten years. Two of these were teams that had also narrowly avoided relegation, but the other four all finished comfortably mid-table, albeit in poor form, reminiscent of this year’s Bolton.

Leicester finished the 2000/01 season with nine defeats in their last ten and dropping from 4th to 13th in the process. They carried this form into the new season, getting thumped by newly promoted Bolton in their first game of the new campaign, losing seven of their first ten games, and being rooted to the foot of the table for most of the season.

Southampton finished 12th in 2004 but with only two points from their last five games. Again, this carried over to the new campaign, with them winning only one of their first twelve and ultimately finishing bottom.

Charlton finished the 2005/06 season in 12th place despite four defeats in their last five then started the next season with seven defeats and only one win in their first ten games, ultimately finishing 19th.

Birmingham’s impressive 2009/10 season saw them defy expectations and claim a top ten place, but also saw them win only one of their last ten games. Whilst the following year started with a four-game unbeaten run, they only managed one win in the first eight, and ultimately a poor end to a topsy-turvy season saw them relegated on the last day.

In four of the last ten seasons, one of the relegated teams have had the worst form of any surviving team in the last five games of the previous campaign. Obviously this also means that the other six teams that finished bottom of the form guide survived, including Everton in 2004 and Man City in 2007 who went on to enjoy top half finishes the following year.

Remember, though, that losing your last five games is unprecedented for any surviving club, so Bolton are in uncharted territory. We managed less than a point a game since Christmas (only Blackpool and West Ham had worse records) and with our diabolical away record, a tricky start at newly promoted QPR (reminiscent of Leicester in 2002) closely followed by games against five of last season’s top six and things could look bleak by mid-October.

Last season’s only other premier league ‘survivor’ with less than a point per game in their last five was Arsenal, who are clearly in no danger of relegation.

Candidates: Bolton

5. Other factors
This category covers other potential ‘warning signs’: financial troubles, loss of a long-term manager, change of ownership, daft managerial sackings and disastrous appointments.

Many of the teams already mentioned also fit into this category. Leicester had recently lost Martin O’Neill. Charlton had lost Curbishley and followed up with three managers the following year. Southampton lost Strachan and appointed Sturrock (briefly) then Wigley (laughably), and so on.

Only six of our thirty relegated teams do not fit into at least one of the categories above. Two of these – Leeds in 2004 and Portsmouth in 2010 – were victims of financial meltdown, as the consequences of overspending took them from European qualification to relegation in short time.

Another – Newcastle – had recently changed ownership, and were going through their Laurel and Hardy phase as new owner Mike Ashley was demonstrating why he should never have been allowed anywhere near a professional football club. There were already murmurings of discontent before Keegan walked out at the start of their relegation season.

Barring sudden loss of interest from the Arabs / Russians / Americans, there are a couple of potential candidates from this category.

Blackburn’s recent change of ownership coupled with the appointment of an inexperienced manager probably put them at the top of the list.

Bet you daren't appoint ... him!

Mike Ashley still should be allowed nowhere near a football club, and Newcastle’s sacking of Hughton and appointment of Pardew seems a bit of an odd one. Again there are murmurings from within the club, and the sale of your captain and main goal threat to a championship club doesn’t bode well, so let’s add them too.

Aston Villa’s appointment of McLeish is the most head-scratchingly daft for a while, but they have too much money and (currently) too good a squad to be genuine candidates.

Candidates: Blackburn, Newcastle.

That leaves only three clubs out of the last thirty relegated that were relegated without any of the ‘warning signs’ listed above, which suggests that if you’re an established premier league club not mentioned thus far, you’re probably safe..

Summary: put your money on …
It’s difficult to look beyond the three promoted sides, and likely that at least a couple will be in the mix. Other prime candidates for me would be; Blackburn due to their potential for off-field turmoil with the new owners and because they narrowly avoided relegation this year, Newcastle due to Mike Ashley, Alan Pardew, and second season syndrome, Wolves simply because the worst placed survivor tends to have an even chance of going down, and finally Bolton due to our poor form at the end of last season and our difficult schedule at the start of this one, but mainly so I don’t jinx us by saying we’ll be safe.

To narrow it down further, I’d expect Wolves to build on their survival in the last two seasons and Bolton to have too much pedigree, too solid a set-up and too good a manager to be in the mix after Christmas.

So perm any three from Norwich, QPR, Swansea, Newcastle, and Blackburn.

There you go – the three relegated teams will definitely come out of that bunch. Probably.

- Wakey

Can someone turn off those lights on your way out...!

However, reading several posts on various Bolton messageboards over the past three weeks, more than a few fans consider the season to be over already. In their minds, our season ended on 19th March 2011 at approximately 16.35.

This was when the boot of Manchester United’s Johny Evans collided with the knee of Bolton’s Stuart Holden. The initial reaction was not good: Holden was stretchered off the Old Trafford pitch in obvious distress and Bolton fans feared the worse. Two days later, those fears were realised: Holden was out for six months (‘gutted smilely’).

Evans, to his credit, called to Holden to apologise for the challenge, an apology that Holden has yet to receive from De Jong for a similar tackle twelve months earlier. Holden has accepted Evans’ apology conceding that, unfortunately, injuries are a risk in a contact sport such as football. Arsenal fans take note, it’s not just your players who can suffer injury as a result of a mistimed challenge, a fact that poor Holden knows only too well.

Since signing for Bolton in January 2010, becoming Owen Coyle’s first signing in the process, he has had two season ending injuries in as many seasons. For a player who is not considered to be ‘injury prone’, he has spent a lot of time keeping Sean Davis company in the treatment room.

It was that Jonny Evens who did it...!

I have every faith that Holden will bounce back from this set back, just as he has the others in his career. He seems to have the right attitude and is already focusing on his recovery. That said, I’m sure he’ll be gutted about missing the biggest game of his club career, not to disrespect to his achievements in the MLS.

He has been a breath of fresh air in a Bolton midfield terrified of the ball in recent seasons. Confident in possession, keen for the ball and with an eye for a pass as well as being equally adept in his
defensive duties: he is / was (I can’t be arsed checking) the top tackling midfielder in the Premier League. A solid all rounder. The only slight criticism I can think of is that I thought that he may have chipped in with a few more goals, although I instantly forgive him that when I remember that one of the goals he did score was the winner against Blackburn, the first at home for 13 years. What a goal it was too!

Losing a player of Holden’s quality will obviously be a big blow as, in this author’s opinion (and that of many others), he has been our player of the season this year, and by some distance. Any team would be weaker in his absence. However, despite losing our best performer, is our season effectively over?

Bloody Hell.... look what you've started now Jonny.... hope you're proud of yourself ?

Unfortunately, the stats do not make for good reading: since Stu-S-A made his league bow for the Mighty Whites in March 2010 against Wolves,  we have won 41% of league games in which Holden has featured (impressive eh?) compared with just 20% when Holden has been absent (not so impressive).

Another issue we have is the fitness of Mark Davies. In an ideal world, I’d pick Mark Davies and Holden to be my starting midfield duo as I think they compliment each other well; they’re both comfortable in posession, good on the ball (Davies especially) and are always willing to take the ball and try and make something happen, a trait which I feel some other Bolton players do not have. To lose Holden is a spanner in the works; to lose Davies too is a toolbox in the works.

However, despite what the stats say (people can use stats to prove anything even remotely true), we are not a one man team. (As yesterday’s game v West Ham proved) We were in great form prior to the Man Utd game with six wins in the previous nine games in league and cup.

Not only was our form impressive, but the spirit within the team was as good as I can remember. 3-2 victories against Aston Villa, after going behind twice, and Birmingham in the cup, after twice being pegged back, demonstrated the great character and spirit in this Bolton team.

Under Megson, we would have lost the game against Villa for sure and could have easily lost the game against Birmingham. I very much doubt we would have gone on to win 3-2 under Megson. If I’m honest, I doubt we would have done so under Allardyce, whose teams were set up to grind out narrow 1-0 opposed to last minute winners.

The team demonstrated amazing resolve in each of those matches. Having dominated for large periods against Birmingham, passing up several opportunities to secure the win, they were hit with a big sucker punch with Phillips’ goal, however good a goal it may have been. It would have been easy for Bolton to take the draw and look to the replay in that position, but Owen Coyle’s men are made of sterner stuff. They didn’t allow Birmingham to establish any momentum following their goal and, ultimately, got the result which, overall, I think they fully deserved.

That is the type of attitude and desire that needs to return, not only on the pitch but in the stands. There’s no point in us feeling sorry for ourselves. Holden is a great player, but he’s just that, one player. The results we got before were down to the team, not any one man.

The fans and the team need to return to the previous mindset we had all of a month ago. Holden’s injury could be the defining moment in our season, it could give M Davies the chance to shine etc, but we can’t let it define our season.

We have a fantastic opportunity to reach our first FA Cup final in 53 years. What has happened in the last three weeks cannot be erased; it cannot be altered, however much we may wish it could be.

Go on cocker.... do it for me...!

However, we do have control over the next few matches. I’m sure Coyle will have team fully prepared for the semi final, but the fans can play their part too. The players need us now more than ever. Together, we can win this semi final, no matter who is in our midfield. Contrary to what the naysayers may believe, our season is far from over!

-Dave Hallsworth-

(incidentally, when fans discuss the golden era of Bolton Wanderers, for me our second greatest period – after the 1920′s – is 30 Dec 2009 to 8 Jan 2010)

I’ll start by saying I’m a huge fan of Owen Coyle. In my opinion, this is the best managerial appointment we have ever made. Whether we go on to have the success to justify that statement remains to be seen and depends on a whole range of factors, but for me there has never previously been an available candidate more perfect for the job. I’ve stated my reasons for this in great depth many times in the past on the old official board and others, so I won’t go over old ground.

we're all a happy bunch here...

All that said, my take on the first year under OC is that if anything the “Coyle revolution” has gone slightly slower than I expected / would have liked.

To evaluate the changes, it seems reasonable to summarise based on some key areas: our league position, the style of football, spirit / morale within the club, and mood / enthusiasm of the supporters.

League position:
A massive “pass” for OC thus far. Taking over in the bottom three and guiding us comfortably to safety last season was a solid start, but it’s our lofty heights this season that really catches the eye. It’s pretty safe to say that we would be nowhere near 6th at this stage of the season under the previous manager. I’d also say it would be unlikely that we would be anywhere near this position now if BSA had never left (or worse – returned).

However, we shouldn’t get too carried away yet. We have put ourselves in an excellent position to give us a chance of a top 8 finish, but there’s a long way to go yet. Other teams have games in hand, and our position could look a bit different after the next couple of games.

We’ve also benefited from a season where some of the fancied sides have started poorly. Nobody would have predicted at the start of the season that Liverpool, Everton AND Villa would all be outside the top 8 at this stage of the season.

What our position does give us is the confidence that we can beat anyone on our day. We have thus far bounced back from our defeats and have yet to face a losing run, so while there is obviously the risk that we may drop down the table in the second half, our position at this point is outstanding.

Style of football:
I suspect I’m in the minority in that I saw changes (or thought I did …) in our style more or less straight away, albeit they were not major and were more indications of our attempt to play better football than any great transformation.

However, thus far I think this is the area where OC has had the least success, although admittedly this may be judging things against my optimistic expectations.
Undoubtedly, things have progressed signifcantly since the dark, ginger days. We are undoubtedly trying to play positive attractive football. When it comes together, we look great. When it doesn’t – and it often hasn’t – we don’t look massively different from the Megson era.

What is different – and massively – is that even when we don’t look great, we know that we are trying to play positive football. Under Megson, it was patently obvious to everyone that things, style-wise, were never going to get any better. On the odd occasion the ginger one hinted we might develop our style over time – usually around the time we were trying to flog season tickets – he very quickly went on to deny it.
We are clearly a much better side on MOTD, hence we are the new media darlings, but the hype over our transformation has been hugely exaggerated.

The reason that we haven’t made the level of progress style-wise that I expected (and I believe Coyle wanted) is simple: we haven’t been able to change the personnel much. Because most of the squad were under contract and we haven’t been able to sell many, Coyle has only been able to bring in two significant signings (Allonso is “one for the future”, to quote BSA). Holden has been inspirational, and sums up the type of player Coyle wants – a “proper” footballer, always comfortable in possession. Petrov has yet to set the world on fire, but on paper was a great signing, and demonstrates Coyle’s passion for exciting wingers.

Match attack superstar...

Other than that, he’s been stuck with mostly Megson’s signings. There are clearly different opinions on the quality of the ginger ones transfer activity. For (further) clarification (Don), with one or two exceptions, I believe he wasted £40m+ on largely mediocre players, but even if you think Megson bought well, I suspect you’d probably accept that they were bought to play Megson football. By and large – LCY and Mavies excepted – they are not comfortable on the ball.

Whilst Coyle has worked wonders with the squad he has, and we have seen clear and demonstrable progress in areas such as possession and pass completion, we still struggle at times to keep hold of the ball and control games. Incidentally, our average possession per game has gone from sub-40% under Megson to 50% plus under Coyle. Admittedly, I’m guessing about the 50% plus, but it’s a fairly confident guess that I’ll confirm at some point when I can be bothered.

My overall verdict on style of football: another “pass” (pardon the pun), but by nowhere near as much as the media and others would have you believe (although as Coyle himself says, we are very much a work in progress).

Spirit / morale within the club:
I tend to be a bit sceptical of the propaganda that comes out of football clubs. Interviews these days are carefully managed by the press office, so the odd snippet claiming everyone is happy and the manager is a nice bloke prove nowt.
At a push, the volume of positive “news” could be used as an indication, or you could claim to interpret the “tone” of the stuff that comes out (“he said he liked Megson, but you can tell that he really likes Coyle), but in reality it’s all fluff.

So how do we judge the improved morale and spirit within the club?

Ok, the volume and consistency of the “good news” since OC came in does seem relatively convincing, and the less processed stuff, e.g. remarks in live interviews, twitter etc, all support the party line that Coyle is an inspirational / positive / infectious manager.

It’s also been commented on elsewhere that everyone around the club, ticket office, club shop, etc etc, seem much brighter than they did a year or so ago, i.e. everything “feels” better, much like it did in Rioch’s tenure.

But the proof in the pudding is what we actually see on the pitch.

The players have demonstrated a spirit that was invisible under the ginger one.
Maybe this can be attributed to Coyle’s acclaimed man-management versus Megson’s petulent shout/bully/sulk approach. At least now we can believe that if a player’s out of the team it’s because the manager thinks someone else will do a better job, rather than because the manager’s fell out with him.

Under Megson, if we went behind we gave up the ghost. Under Coyle, we’ve come back from two down against Blackpool and – with ten men – Birmingham.
Under Megson, we couldn’t hold on to a two goal lead. Under Coyle this season, we’ve gone on to score a third goal on four occasions and – despite scares against Spurs and Wolves – have gone on to win when we take a two goal lead.
We’ve seen it consistently throughout the season so far. I’m sure everyone can pick their own examples, but I’d also point to beating Blackburn with ten men, or the disappointment etched all over the faces of the players when we’ve only managed draws away at Villa and Everton and at home to Man Utd.

This, again is a massive “pass” for OC.

Mood / enthusiasm of the supporters:
Is it fair to judge a manager’s performance on the mood of the fans? Probably not, in all fairness. It’s been commented elsewhere that we have some bloody miserable fans at the best of times, and you don’t have to do too much research to realise that there are plenty who couldn’t manage an independent thought, let alone a football club.

However, whilst I’d accept that we’re probably not the best qualified to judge a manager’s performance, at the end of the day it’s OUR CLUB in a way that, sadly, it is rarely if ever the manager’s club.

It also matters because a disgruntled fan-base rarely goes hand in hand with success on the pitch.

It’s pretty obvious that the mood has improved massively over the last year. A surprisingly healthy league position has had a massive impact, but it was also the easiest area for Coyle to succeed in.

In a nutshell, Megson alienated the vast majority of the fans over his time in charge. By the end, he was roundly disliked (“hated” by many).

Owen Coyle is everything that Megson isn’t. It’s pretty much as simple as that.

Where Megson was ultra-negative, Coyle is positive. Where Megson was surly, Coyle is charming. Where Megson had a pop at the supporters, Coyle praises and thanks us. The list is pretty much endless.

It’s worth noting that Coyle wasn’t universally worshipped from day one. There have still been plenty – let’s call them miserable wankers, for want of something better – who couldn’t help spouting off that the football wasn’t much better, the crowds weren’t coming back, we had the same number of points under Megson etc etc etc.

Let’s also not kid ourselves that they’ve all been won round. They’re simply keeping quiet until they think of something else to moan about. But whilst they tend to be vocal on internet forums, and there are always a few to be heard in the ground, the miserable wankers really don’t count. They will never ever be happy, so fcuk ‘em.

The mood of “the fans” generally is – quite obviously – another massive pass for OC.

Summary …
OC’s had a huge impact on the spirit within the club and the mood of the fans. Our current league position is exceptional against anybody’s pre-season expectations. The league position obviously helps with the feel-good factor. Massive success in these areas.

Performance and style-wise, for me it’s been more a mixed bag. Fantastic at times, but I think there is much, much better to come, particularly once OC has chance to change the personnel at the club.

So here’s to 2011 and another year of progress under OC.

Happy New Year everyone.

Guest Bogger -Wakey-

a)    Always injured
b)    Crap

Yes, Chris Kirkland, that’s you we’re talking about.

However, there have been a couple of snags.  After being roundly thrashed by Blackpool and Chelsea, Roberto Martinez’s side were expected to go the same way at Spurs.  Instead they scored an unlikely victory and the big Omani stopper performed heroically to keep a clean sheet for the second time in five days.

Wigan.  Clean sheet.  Same paragraph.  Doesn’t compute does it?

Agent Al-Habsi appears to have misunderstood his instructions.  He was supposed to keep the result respectable, not stop the other lot scoring altogether.

Secondly, events at the Reebok on Sunday, have got some fans in a panic, frantically calling for Bolton’s reserve ‘keeper to be recalled.  Jussi Jaaskelainen will receive a three match ban for violent conduct after giving Roger Johnson what John McGinlay might have described as a ‘wee push’, albeit in a somewhat girly fashion.

Owen Coyle doesn’t agree and has already pledged his faith in Adam Bogdan.

‘I have belief in the lad, that is why we were able to let Ali Al-Habsi out on loan because I knew Adam was competent and ready to go in goal and he showed his qualities in this match,’  he said after Bogdan’s debut at Southampton.  It’s a view that was re-iterated in his Birmingham post-match interview.

Bogdan faces a tough time.  His first league start will be at Arsenal, followed by a visit to Aston Villa, where Bolton have conceded thirteen times in three matches.  Then there’s  a trip to Burnley, which may well be a feisty affair, with the town still mired in bitterness after Owen Coyle’s perceived treachery.  The young Hungarian has the ability to cope, provided nerves don’t kick in.

This is how to slap someone around on a football field

The problem will arise if something happens to Bogdan.  His understudy for those three games will be Rob Lainton, who is well regarded amongst the backroom staff, but completely untested at first team level.

In that eventuality the only option will be to recall Al-Habsi, which can’t happen if his move becomes permanent.  Jaaskelainen’s reaction on Sunday was viewed as a rush of blood to the gloves, but it may well have cost Bolton a sum in the region of £3 million.

So is this.[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvubZ9xGUxw[/youtube]

Player, shirt, grin, with zimmer frame cunningly concealed

Robbie Blake had done nothing, apart from look old, after he replaced Johan Elmander, but his free kick that gave the Whites a share of the points was a peach.  Ben Foster in the Birmingham goal couldn’t have been further from the ball if he’d been outside the stadium.

Five minutes into the second half things had looked grim for the home side, after Craig Gardner put Birmingham two up.  By this stage, they were down to ten men, Jussi Jaaskelainen having been sent off for bitch slapping Roger Johnson.  The incident will be a prime candidate for inclusion in a future instalment of Football’s Most Embarrassing Moments. That left Adam Bodan, wearing a shirt almost the exact colour of his hair to make a league debut under the most difficult of circumstances.

Johnson appeared to be at the centre of everything.  Early on he put the visitors ahead from a James McFadden cross, but was at fault when bundling Kevin Davies to the floor with twenty minutes remaining.  Davies coolly slotted the resulting penalty home.

Bolton huffed and puffed to little effect, a Johan Elmander effort being the closest thing to a chance, but they were rescued as referee Kevin Friend lived up to his name.  A clash between Gary Cahill and Barry Ferguson appeared to be six of one and half-a-dozen of the other, but a free kick was given to the home side just outside the penalty area, and Blake curled it brilliantly over the wall to give his new side a share of the spoils.

There’s another tenuous link with the Whites provided by bean-pole striker Nikola Zigic who signed for McLeish recently.  Sam Allardyce and Harry Redknapp watched the Serb as he played for Crvena Zvezda against Cork City back in 2006, with the possibility of recruiting him.  Sam’s thoughts aren’t recorded, but ‘Arry wasn’t impressed.

Not a Pretty Sight

‘I don’t think five million will buy him,’ advised Zigic’s agent after the game.

‘I know, I’m one of them,’ replied Bagpuss.

Birmingham were last season’s surprise package.  They were expected to struggle but survived comfortably, thanks to some stout organization and occasional last ditch defending.

So far the two sides have identical results, one draw, two wins and entrance to the next round of the Carling Cup.  The performances of Owen Coyle’s side have been patchy.  They were disjointed against Fulham and overrun in the first half at West Ham, before finishing as comfortable victors.  Yet the points tally so far is satisfactory.

Coyle has an almost full squad to pick from, bar Ivan Klasnic and Sean Davis, who was only kept on to keep the medical staff busy now that Ricardo Vaz Te has transferred to the treatment room at another club.

The defence is a worry and the midfield hasn’t gelled yet, although individually there seems to be potential there.  The most encouraging thing so far has been the improvement in Johan Elmander.  Let’s hope it’s not another false dawn.

The last game at the Reebok between these two ended in a 2-1 victory for the Whites, but as all parties involved had already booked their summer holidays, it has limited relevance.  Expect a tightly fought encounter with (optimistic hat on) Bolton running out the eventual winners.

1990-1999

another close encounter....

The 1990’s are a strange decade for Bolton fans. Whilst they only spent two seasons in the top flight and four in the third, and had their second worst ranking of any decade, most of us look back on the decade with a great deal of fondness. It was undoubtedly the decade that started the revival in the club’s fortunes after the misery of the 1980’s; that brought Bruce Rioch’s free-flowing football to the club; that saw great giant killing acts, including knocking cup holders Liverpool out of the competition in a replay at Anfield, before repeating the feat the following season at Highbury against then cup-holders Arsenal. It was the decade that saw a return to the top flight for the first time in fifteen years, a record breaking promotion campaign under Colin Todd, the move to the Reebok, and local legends like John McGinlay, David Lee, and even commentator Dave Higson.

The 1990’s started for Bolton with a 6th place finish and a play-off semi-final defeat to Notts County. The following season saw a 4th place finish, and this time a trip to Wembley in the play-off final, again ending in disappointment with defeat to Tranmere.

The following year was a disappointment, with Bolton finishing 13th, heralding the departure of manager Phil Neal and the appointment of Bruce Rioch. Rioch’s first season saw promotion from the third tier – by now the Division Two – at his first attempt, finishing runners-up to Stoke.

After consolidating their place in Division One with a 14th place finish, Bolton gained promotion to the Premier League in 1995 after a memorable play-off final win against Reading. Rioch departed for Arsenal, and Roy McFarland was brought in as joint manager with Colin Todd. The Wanderers spent most of the season rooted to the foot of the table, before their inevitable relegation, nine points adrift of safety.

The following season saw the Trotters win the First Division by eighteen clear points from second-placed Barnsley, and only missing out on becoming the first team to amass 100 points and 100 league goals in the same season due to a Tranmere equaliser on the last day of the season.

Again the stay was short-lived, with relegation on goal difference to Everton on the final day of the 1997-98 season. The following season, Bolton again made the play-off final, this time losing to Watford.

Birmingham spent the first three years of the decade in the third tier alongside Bolton, finishing 7th (one place behind the Trotters) and 12th before gaining promotion in 1992 as runners up to Brentford. The following season saw them finish 19th, but they were relegated the year after, losing out on goal difference to West Brom.

As Bolton were gaining promotion to the top flight in 1995, Birmingham were gaining promotion as champions of Division Two, with Brentford as runners up.

The next four years saw steady progress but no promotion, finishing 15th, 10th, 7th, and 4th respectively, and losing out to Watford in the play-off semi-finals in 1999.

The 1990’s had seen Bolton recover from a third tier club to one with genuine Premiership aspirations, but their overall ranking of 33rd was the second worst in the club’s history. Birmingham were the 24th best team in a decade which had also seen them climb from the third tier to the upper reaches of the second.

Manchester United were the team of the decade, winning the title five times, followed by Liverpool and Arsenal with Aston Villa in 4th, enjoying their best decade since 1919.

2000-2009

The first decade of the new millennium was to prove Bolton’s best since the 1950’s, although it started in yet more play-off disappointment in a season that was to see the Wanderers fail in three semi-finals: to Tranmere in the League Cup, to Aston Villa on penalties in the FA Cup, and to Ipswich after extra time in a controversial play-off semi-final which saw Ipswich awarded three penalties and referee Barry Knight hand out twelve yellow cards and two red to Bolton players. The same season saw Sam Allardyce replace Colin Todd as manager.

The following season, the Trotters put their disappointment aside and returned to the top flight once more after play-off victory against Preston. They had finished the season in third place behind Fulham and Blackburn. All three teams remained in the Premiership for the remainder of the decade.

Despite leading the table briefly at the start of the season, 2002 saw Bolton in a relegation scrap, eventually finishing 16th and avoiding relegation by four points. A year later, they needed 44 points to retain their Premier League status, a home win on the last day against Middlesboro securing safety and condemning West Ham to relegation on 42 points.

The next four years saw top eight finishes for the Wanderers, enjoying a best place of 6th and securing European football on two occasions.

The end of the 2006-07 season saw the departure of manager Sam Allardyce and the ill-fated appointment of his assistant Sammy Lee. Lee was sacked shortly (no pun intended) into the following season, leaving Bolton bottom of the table with five points from ten games when Gary Megson took over. Having seemed to put themselves in a comfortable position, a poor run of form at the start of 2008, following the departure of Nicholas Anelka, saw the Trotters facing relegation, until a run of eleven points from the last five games saw them avoid relegation by a point.

They flirted vaguely with relegation at times the following season, but helped by a run of four wins in five matches in November, finished comfortably in 13th, seven points clear of relegation to end the decade in the top flight.

Birmingham started the decade with three 5th place finishes, losing out in the play-off semi-finals to Barnsley and Preston before beating Norwich on penalties in the 2002 final. They also reached the final of the League Cup in 2001, losing on a penalty shoot-out to Liverpool.

They went on to enjoy three comfortable seasons in the Premier League under manager Steve Bruce, finishing 13th, 10th, and 12th respectively, but 2006 saw them relegated along with West Brom and Sunderland after a late rally from Portsmouth.

Bruce remained in charge, and Birmingham achieved an immediate return as runners-up to Sunderland. However, after a disappointing start to the following season, and amidst speculation about a possible takeover and its implications for Bruce’s position, he left the club to join Wigan in November 2007 and was replaced by Alex McLeish. Ironically a month earlier, Bruce had been a target for Bolton, but the Trotters were refused permission to speak to him.

McLeish couldn’t keep Birmingham up, and despite looking well placed going into the later stages, a run of five points from the last six games, combined with the late-season form of both Bolton and Fulham, saw the Blues relegated, one point behind Fulham but with a superior goal difference.

Again, the Blues bounced back up immediately, finishing runners-up to Wolves and ensuring that they would start the new decade in the top flight.

The decade was Bolton’s fourth best ever, with eight seasons in the top flight, including four top eight finishes, helping them to a ranking of 11th. Birmingham split their time equally between the top two divisions, with three promotions and two relegations, and finished with a ranking of 17th, also their best rating since the 1950’s.

Unsurprisingly, Manchester United were top dogs, with six league titles helping them to top spot (and a ludicrously low average league position of 1.7), followed by Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Aston Villa.

Whatever happens on Sunday, Birmingham will finish above Bolton for the 38th time, and the first time since 2003, and both teams will meet again in the Premier League next season.

Summary Table

Trevor Francis lines up for his league debut

1940-1949

 The resumption of the league programme saw only three completed seasons in the 1940’s. Bolton struggled in the bottom half in all three, and were 19th best overall, whilst Birmingham – relegated in 1939 – missed out on promotion in 1947 before winning the Second Division the next year and finishing 17th in 1949, leaving them with the 22nd best average league position for the period.

Manchester United were top dogs, finishing 2nd in each of the three seasons, with Villa 6th, with league finishes of 8th, 6th, and 10th.

1950-59

The 1950’s were another successful period for Bolton, spending the entire decade in the top flight, enjoying five top ten finishes and two FA Cup Finals, including the 1958 win over the post-Munich Busby Babes. Over the decade, Bolton were the seventh best league side, although this was to precede four decades that were to see Bolton drop down the leagues and back up again twice.

Birmingham split the decade equally, with five years in the top flight and five in the second tier. They started the decade by coming bottom of the First Division, then spent the next five seasons in the upper reaches of the second tier before promotion as champions in 1955. The following season saw the Blues reach their highest ever league position of 6th, and reached the FA Cup final for the second time, losing 3-1 to Manchester City in a game memorable for City keeper Bert Trautman’s heroics in completing the match despite a broken bone in his neck.

They also became the first English club to take part in European competition, playing their first group game in the inaugural Inter-Cities Fairs Cup in May 1956. They would go on to lose a semi-final replay 2-1 to Barcelona after drawing 4-4 on aggregate. Both 1957 and 1958 saw Birmingham finish 13th, and they finished the decade with a 9th place finish in 1959.

For the 1950’s as a whole, Birmingham were the 17th best team, a feat they would not match until the first decade of the next century. Local rivals Aston Villa were 12th best – their worst decade to date – whilst three title wins helped Manchester United to be top dogs, ahead of Wolves in second place and Arsenal in third.

The decade was also the heyday for two of the smaller Lancashire clubs, with Blackpool the 4th best team overall (their best ever decade) and Burnley 5th (they would go one better in the 1960’s).

1960-1969

At the start of the decade, Bolton were historically the 6th best side since the commencement of league football in 1888 (Birmingham were 24th) and had spent all bar seven seasons in the top flight. Although they started the decade with a top six finish in the First Division, football was changing with the abolition of the maximum wage imminent, and the 1960’s were to see the start of Bolton’s fall from the top table of English football.

The following season saw the retirement of legendary centre forward Nat Lofthouse, and Bolton struggled without him, finishing 18th. Despite a mid-table finish in 1962, Bolton were again 18th the following year before finally being relegated in 1964. The remainder of the decade saw Bolton slowly slip down the Second Division, finishing 3rd in 1965, 9th in each of the next two years, 12th in 1968, and 17th in 1969.

Birmingham spent the first six years struggling at the foot of the First Division, finishing 19th, 19th, 17th, 20th, and 20th before finally being relegated in 1965 in last place. Despite struggling in the league, they had notable cup success, becoming the first English club to reach a European final in 1960, losing 4-1 to Barcelona in the Inter Cities Fairs Cup, and repeating the feat a year later, this time losing to AS Roma after beating Inter Milan home and away in the semis. The Blues also beat rivals Aston Villa 3-1 on aggregate to win the 1963 League Cup.

Following relegation, Birmingham finished the decade in the top half of Division Two, and ended as the 26th best team, one place below Bolton in 25th, the Trotters’ worst decade to date. Aston Villa also had their worst decade to date, in 21st place, whilst Manchester United were 3rd behind Spurs and Everton.

1970-1979

The start of the decade saw both clubs struggling at the wrong end of Division Two, with Bolton in 16th and Birmingham in 18th, but the two clubs were to head in different directions for the next few years.

In 1971 Bolton finished rooted to the foot of the Second Division, and relegated to the Third Division for the first time in their history, whilst Birmingham finished mid-table.

Bolton spent the next two years in the third tier, promoted as champions in 1973, followed by two seasons mid-table in Division Two. In each of the following two years, they finished 4th, missing out on promotion by a point to West Brom and Brian Clough’s Notts Forest respectively, before pipping Southampton and Spurs to the Second Division title in 1978. Unlike their promotion rivals, Bolton’s return to the top flight would be brief, although they did end the decade with a relatively comfortable 17th place finish.

Birmingham followed their 9th place finish in 1971 with promotion the following year, and spent the next seven years in the top flight, flirting with relegation in 1974 (19th), 1975 (17th), and 1976 (19th), but otherwise being comfortably mid-table before their relegation in 1979.

The decade was again Bolton’s worst to date, with only one season in the top flight and two in the third tier, and an overall position of 32nd best team for the decade, whilst Birmingham were 20th.

Liverpool dominated the decade with 4 title wins and a worst finish of 5th, followed by Leeds in 2nd, with by far and away their best decade, and two times champions Derby in third. Aston Villa had their worst decade, with four seasons in the second tier and three in the third dragging their ranking down to 26th, the only decade in which Birmingham have outperformed their neighbours in the league. Bolton’s near neighbour’s Manchester United suffered relegation in 1974 after struggling the previous year, but bounced straight back and still managed to be the 8th best team of the 1970’s.

1980-1989

By 1972, Bolton had dropped out of the all-time top ten, and by the end of the 1970’s they were historically the 13th best team since league football began. Birmingham were 23rd. Whilst the 1980’s was to see Birmingham improve their all-time ranking by one place to 22nd, a position they still hold, Bolton were to drop from 13th to 18th.

If the 1960’s were bad for Bolton and the 1970’s worse, the 1980’s were an unmitigated disaster that saw the club plummet from the top flight to the Fourth Division and on the brink of bankruptcy.

The decade started with Bolton rooted to the foot of the First Division in 1980. The following two seasons saw them battling relegation in the second tier, a fight they were to lose in 1983, when seven points from their last twelve games contributed to a bottom-place finish, three points from safety, and relegation to the Third Division for the second time.

Again they finished mid-table in their first season, but rather than bounce back the following year, they spent the next three seasons in the bottom half, culminating in the unthinkable – a play-off defeat to Aldershot and relegation to the Fourth Division for the first and only time in the club’s history.

The Trotters managed to secure promotion at the first attempt in 1988, and finished the decade with a 10th place finish in Division Three.

Birmingham started the decade with promotion to the top-flight, replacing Bolton in the process, and spent the next four seasons in the bottom half before relegation in 1984, two points adrift of perennial survivors Coventry. The following season they were promoted again, finishing second behind Oxford and above Man City in third, but survived only one season, finishing thirteen points adrift of safety, but five above neighbours West Brom. The next three seasons saw them virtually mirror Bolton’s performance after their relegation in 1980, finishing 19th twice before being relegated to the Third Division for the first time in their history, finishing in 23rd place, twelve points from safety and one place above neighbours Walsall.

Despite their unprecedented relegation to the third tier at the end of the decade, Birmingham’s performance over the 1980’s as a whole was consistent with previous decades, with an overall rating of 24th. Bolton, on the other hand, had spent one year at the foot of the top tier, three seasons in the second, five in the third, and one in the fourth, leaving them with an overall ranking of 48th that would have been unthinkable a decade or two earlier, and put them in the bottom half of the 93 clubs that had played league football in the 1980’s.

Top dogs were Liverpool, with six title wins, followed by Arsenal and Manchester United in joint second, Forest in fourth, and Everton in fifth.

Look out for part three, 1990 to present, coming soon

On face value, Bolton and Birmingham don’t have a great deal in common. Bolton have always struggled to compete against local big-city clubs, whereas Birmingham are based in England’s second city. Birmingham have enjoyed several high-profile- and sometimes controversial – owners, whilst Bolton have been quietly run by the local bakers for much

Wakey in manny road stand watching Wanderers v Birmingham 1922

of their history.

Scratch the surface (and clutch a few straws) and you can find the odd similarity. Both were formed within a year or so of each other, initially as church sides. Both have lived largely in the shadow of more successful local rivals. Both would see their rightful place as mid-table (ish) in the Premier League, although there are probably at least twenty other clubs with similar aspirations.

Scratch even deeper, and there’s a much closer similarity between the two.

Bolton fans would probably claim that the Trotters are the more successful of the two clubs. Founder members of the Football League, they have four FA Cup wins plus three losing final appearances to Birmingham’s two losing finals. They have completed – or will have by Sunday evening – 71 seasons in the top flight to Birmingham’s 56. Of the 107 seasons both teams have been league clubs, including this season, Bolton have finished higher than Birmingham 69 times. Bolton even edge the meetings between the two, with 46 wins to Birmingham’s 39.

But it’s in terms of league success that the two clubs share their greatest similarity.

The method we use to measure how successful a team is historically is to take the overall average league position, i.e. ranking every team’s league position each season from the winner of the Premier League (1st), to the bottom of League Two (92nd), or less in seasons with less than 92 league clubs. Follow the same principle from the inception of the league to present and you can give each team an overall average league position.

In this respect, the two clubs couldn’t be closer.

Historically – including this year and working on the basis that professional league football in England began in the late 1880’s, rather than the early 1990’s as Sky would have you believe – Bolton are the 21st most successful league side in England. Birmingham are 22nd.

Incidentally, and annoyingly for Bolton and Birmingham fans respectively, our local rivals Manchester United and Aston Villa are 5th and 6th most successful, although all four teams are one place higher if you ignore founder members Accrington’s five years as a First Division side.

Bolton fans and regular readers of Manny Road will know that Bolton’s “all-time league” position has dramatically worsened since the 1960’s. In 1960 Bolton were England’s 5th most successful team, and despite the club’s decline, didn’t slip out of the all-time top 10 until the early 1970’s. But how do the two teams’ performances compare?

In anticipation of Sunday’s clash, Manny Road takes a decade-by-decade view of the respective league history of both clubs.

1889-1899
Founder members Bolton spent the first decade (and a bit) in the top flight without ever setting the division alight – a third place finish in 1892 being their highest – and ending the century as the 7th most successful side overall. However, 1899 saw the club finish 17th and face relegation from the top flight for the first time.

Birmingham joined the league as founder members of the newly formed Second Division, and won the inaugural title in 1893 but failed to gain promotion, losing a Test Match (a.k.a. play-off) to Newton Heath (a.k.a. Man Utd). The following year they did go up, finishing second but beating Darwen in a Test Match. Incidentally, Liverpool beat Newton Heath via the same system to take their place in the top flight.
Two years later, Birmingham were relegated after a Test Match against Liverpool, and spent the remainder of the decade in the Second Division.

Birmingham ended the period as the 19th best side, one place ahead of Manchester United. Villa were the most successful club, winning the title 4 times and with an overall average of 3.6, well clear of 2nd best Everton’s average position of 4.1.

1900-1909
The first decade of the twentieth century saw both clubs spend six years in the First Division and four in the second.

Bolton bounced back at the first attempt in 1900, but were relegated again two years later. The following year they had their worst finish to date – 7th in the Second Division – before gaining promotion again in 1905. After two 6th place finishes, Bolton were relegated again in 1908, before going back up as champions the following year, ending the decade as the 16th most successful club, a significant drop on the previous decade, but still comfortably above neighbours Manchester United in 23rd.

Birmingham had their own mini yo-yo spell, with promotion in 1901, relegation in 1902, and promotion again in 1903. They then spent five years in the top flight, with best finishes back-to-back 7th place in 1905 and 1906, before being relegated in 1908 and finishing the decade mid-table in Division Two. Over the decade as a whole, Birmingham were the 18th most successful side.

Newcastle were top dogs for the decade, pushing Birmingham’s arch-rivals Villa into 2nd place.

1910-1919
Only six seasons were completed due to the outbreak of WWI, with Birmingham spending all six in the second tier. They started the decade with their worst year, finishing bottom, and had a best finish of 3rd in 1913.

Bolton briefly continued to yo-yo, finishing bottom in 1910 and bouncing stright back, but then spent an extended period mostly in the top half of the First Division, and – apart from a 17th place finish in 1915 – didn’t face a serious relegation threat again until the 1930’s.

For the six completed seasons of the decade, Bolton were the 13th most successful club, with Birmingham 33rd. Local rivals Villa were again 2nd (Blackburn were top dogs), whilst Manchester United had established themselves as a top flight club, and were in 6th place overall.

1920-1929
The 1920’s saw Bolton’s best ever decade, spending the entire period in the top flight – mostly in the top half – with best placed finishes of 3rd in 1921 and 1925. They also won the FA Cup three times in the decade, including the first Wembley final in 1923.

The period also saw an improvement in Birmingham’s fortunes, with promotion in 1921 followed by an extended run in the First Division. Their best finish was 8th in 1925, which was also their only top half finish in the decade.

Bolton were the 3rd best side in the 1920’s with Birmingham 16th. Local rivals Villa and Manchester United were 5th and 17th respectively, with Liverpool top dogs overall.

1930-1939
The ten years up to WWII saw Birmingham’s best ever decade in terms of league performance, spending the whole period in the top flight, albeit mostly in the lower half. Their best performance was 9th in 1932, and they flirted with relegation in 1931 (19th), 1934 (20th), 1935 (19th) and 1938 (18th), before ending the decade – and the break for WWII – with relegation in 1939 in 21st position. The Blues also reached their first FA Cup final in 1931, losing 2-1 to West Brom.

The first four years of the 1930’s saw Bolton struggle in the bottom half of the First Division, finally being relegated in 1933. They narrowly missed out on promotion in 1934, before regaining top-flight status the following season. After finishing mid-table in 1936, they narrowly avoided relegation the following year, finishing 20th. The final two years of the decade saw Bolton finish comfortably in the top half.

The period saw Birmingham enjoy the 14th best average league placing to Bolton’s 16th, the first of three decades in which the Blues would come out on top. Arsenal were top dogs, with Villa 8th and Manchester United – yet to emerge as a major force and spending six of the ten years in the second tier – 26th.

The war was to cut short the 1939-40 season after just three games, and the league programme didn’t resume until the 1946-47 season, so this is as good as any a point to look at the overall average league positions from 1889-1939.

Bolton, having spent 40 of the 47 completed seasons in the top flight, were 7th overall. Birmingham had missed the first four years, and spent 26 years in the top flight and 17 in the second tier, and were 20th best overall, one place above Man United, who had spent almost half of their 43 years in the second tier.

Overall top dogs were Sunderland, who had spent all of their 45 league seasons in the top flight and won the title six times, followed by Villa, who had also won the title six times, but spent two years in the Second Division, and five times champions Everton, who had spent all bar one year in the top division.

Look out for parts 2 and 3 over the next couple of days.

All the goals from Bolton’s 2-1 win at Birmingham today…

Is Lee Chung Yong the creative player we’ve all been praying for? Has Megson saved his job now?

Leave your views on the Wanderers’ victory at St Andrews in the comment box below…