Would you buy a second hand car off these boys?

Aspirations have changed at Bolton since the dark days of Gary Megson. The arrival of Owen Coyle followed by our impressive start to the season had the more optimistic of us counting air miles and dusting off our Bulgarian phrase-books. Even when European qualification had passed us by – embarrassingly so in the cup – a top half finish was still on the cards right up to the end of the season.

Never mind. Coyle’s inherited Megson’s bunch of cloggers. Once he’s had the summer to make serious changes, we’ll be back to chasing Europe again. Surely relegation battles are a thing of the past? Aren’t they?

Maybe not. Our form after Christmas was relegation-standard, and the end of the season – five defeats on the bounce – was abysmal. It wouldn’t be the first time poor form at the end of one season has carried over to the next. Add to that our tough start to the season and it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see us rock-bottom after the first seven games. We’ll have easier runs to follow, but everything looks that bit tougher if you’re sat at the bottom and confidence may have taken a bit of a battering.

So how relevant is end-of-season form to performance in next campaign? Let’s hope the answer is ‘not very’. Only two previous premier league teams have ever lost their last five matches: Sunderland in 2003 and Derby in 2008. Both teams finished bottom and were relegated. Sunderland set a record low points tally of nineteen. Derby set a new one with eleven. We are therefore proud holders of another record – the only premier league side to have lost their last five games without being relegated.

So are we realistic relegation candidates, and if so who else is? Maybe recent history can give us some pointers.

Teams relegated from the premier league over the last ten years generally fit into one or more of the following categories:

1. Newly promoted

The omens aren't good, Neil

The most obvious category. Thirteen of the last thirty relegated sides were newly promoted, and not since the class of 2001 – Bolton, Blackburn, and Fulham, who are all still there – have all three promoted sides stayed up. Looking on the bright side, it’s 1998 since all three promoted teams were relegated (Bolton, Barnsley, and Crystal Palace), so maybe at least one will survive?

Candidates: QPR, Norwich, Swansea

2. Narrowly avoided relegation
Five of the last ten years’ relegated sides – including each of the last two years – finished in 17th place the previous year, so history suggests there’s a 50:50 chance Wolves will be in the mix next season.
For the record those relegated sides were Derby, Sunderland, West Brom, Hull and West Ham, and those that have survived were Fulham, Wigan, Portsmouth, Everton, and Bolton.

Although no team finishing 16th has been relegated the next year, the closeness of this year’s relegation scrap suggests that the other last day survivors, Wigan and Blackburn, could also be in the mix.
Candidates: Wolves.
Possible: Wigan, Blackburn

3. Second season
Five of the 30 slots have gone to teams ‘enjoying’ their second season in the top flight. In the case of West Brom and Hull, they had also narrowly avoided relegation the previous season, but the other three – Ipswich, Reading, and Birmingham – had finished in the top half.

Newcastle and West Brom are the two clubs facing their second season. West Brom have steadied the ship under Roy Hodgson and will be targeting mid-table at least. Of the two, Newcastle would be the more likely candidates for me, but only because of indications of internal problems and my belief that Pardew is a poor manager, although they should have the finances to build a decent side after the sale of Andy Carroll.

Candidates: Newcastle and West Brom.

4. Finished the previous season badly
Accounts for six of the thirty relegation slots in the last ten years. Two of these were teams that had also narrowly avoided relegation, but the other four all finished comfortably mid-table, albeit in poor form, reminiscent of this year’s Bolton.

Leicester finished the 2000/01 season with nine defeats in their last ten and dropping from 4th to 13th in the process. They carried this form into the new season, getting thumped by newly promoted Bolton in their first game of the new campaign, losing seven of their first ten games, and being rooted to the foot of the table for most of the season.

Southampton finished 12th in 2004 but with only two points from their last five games. Again, this carried over to the new campaign, with them winning only one of their first twelve and ultimately finishing bottom.

Charlton finished the 2005/06 season in 12th place despite four defeats in their last five then started the next season with seven defeats and only one win in their first ten games, ultimately finishing 19th.

Birmingham’s impressive 2009/10 season saw them defy expectations and claim a top ten place, but also saw them win only one of their last ten games. Whilst the following year started with a four-game unbeaten run, they only managed one win in the first eight, and ultimately a poor end to a topsy-turvy season saw them relegated on the last day.

In four of the last ten seasons, one of the relegated teams have had the worst form of any surviving team in the last five games of the previous campaign. Obviously this also means that the other six teams that finished bottom of the form guide survived, including Everton in 2004 and Man City in 2007 who went on to enjoy top half finishes the following year.

Remember, though, that losing your last five games is unprecedented for any surviving club, so Bolton are in uncharted territory. We managed less than a point a game since Christmas (only Blackpool and West Ham had worse records) and with our diabolical away record, a tricky start at newly promoted QPR (reminiscent of Leicester in 2002) closely followed by games against five of last season’s top six and things could look bleak by mid-October.

Last season’s only other premier league ‘survivor’ with less than a point per game in their last five was Arsenal, who are clearly in no danger of relegation.

Candidates: Bolton

5. Other factors
This category covers other potential ‘warning signs’: financial troubles, loss of a long-term manager, change of ownership, daft managerial sackings and disastrous appointments.

Many of the teams already mentioned also fit into this category. Leicester had recently lost Martin O’Neill. Charlton had lost Curbishley and followed up with three managers the following year. Southampton lost Strachan and appointed Sturrock (briefly) then Wigley (laughably), and so on.

Only six of our thirty relegated teams do not fit into at least one of the categories above. Two of these – Leeds in 2004 and Portsmouth in 2010 – were victims of financial meltdown, as the consequences of overspending took them from European qualification to relegation in short time.

Another – Newcastle – had recently changed ownership, and were going through their Laurel and Hardy phase as new owner Mike Ashley was demonstrating why he should never have been allowed anywhere near a professional football club. There were already murmurings of discontent before Keegan walked out at the start of their relegation season.

Barring sudden loss of interest from the Arabs / Russians / Americans, there are a couple of potential candidates from this category.

Blackburn’s recent change of ownership coupled with the appointment of an inexperienced manager probably put them at the top of the list.

Bet you daren't appoint ... him!

Mike Ashley still should be allowed nowhere near a football club, and Newcastle’s sacking of Hughton and appointment of Pardew seems a bit of an odd one. Again there are murmurings from within the club, and the sale of your captain and main goal threat to a championship club doesn’t bode well, so let’s add them too.

Aston Villa’s appointment of McLeish is the most head-scratchingly daft for a while, but they have too much money and (currently) too good a squad to be genuine candidates.

Candidates: Blackburn, Newcastle.

That leaves only three clubs out of the last thirty relegated that were relegated without any of the ‘warning signs’ listed above, which suggests that if you’re an established premier league club not mentioned thus far, you’re probably safe..

Summary: put your money on …
It’s difficult to look beyond the three promoted sides, and likely that at least a couple will be in the mix. Other prime candidates for me would be; Blackburn due to their potential for off-field turmoil with the new owners and because they narrowly avoided relegation this year, Newcastle due to Mike Ashley, Alan Pardew, and second season syndrome, Wolves simply because the worst placed survivor tends to have an even chance of going down, and finally Bolton due to our poor form at the end of last season and our difficult schedule at the start of this one, but mainly so I don’t jinx us by saying we’ll be safe.

To narrow it down further, I’d expect Wolves to build on their survival in the last two seasons and Bolton to have too much pedigree, too solid a set-up and too good a manager to be in the mix after Christmas.

So perm any three from Norwich, QPR, Swansea, Newcastle, and Blackburn.

There you go – the three relegated teams will definitely come out of that bunch. Probably.

- Wakey

That said, while I don’t for one second think that Coyle would turn  down Liverpool, they are after all a massive club with huge tradition  and a great history, that doesn’t mean that I don’t think he wouldn’t  regret it six months down the line.
I’m sure we wouldn’t stand in Coyle’s way if Liverpool does make an approach. It would be a fruitless endeavour anyway. Once a player / manager / assistant manager / coach / groundsmen / tea lady etc have made up their mind that they wish to leave, the best thing the club can do is try to get the maximum amount for them.

king Kenny in high spirites on his return to Anfield, with a ermmm his assistants

That is why, if Liverpool do come calling, we’ll be powerless to keep Owen. I’m not naive; Coyle is an ambitious manager and his career aims will mean that he’ll outgrow Bolton, just as he outgrew Burnley.
I don’t expect him to stay at Bolton for his entire career and I’ve  always been prepared for the fact that, if a big club  came in for  him, he would leave. The consolation in that logic was that, in order for a big club to come calling, Coyle had to be a success at Bolton.

He has; 7th in the league going into the new year, despite a little, and probably understandable considering the squad, wobble in form and results of late.
I have just been informed by my Dad that Roy Hodgson has been sacked by Liverpool and Kenny Dalglish has been appointed until the  end of the season

Cheers Liverpool. Kinda stepped on my point there. Ah well, I haven’t written a Manny Road article for so long… I’ll continue.
I don’t think there has been a worse time than this to manage Liverpool. Of course they are a massive club but they have an average team, little money to spend (although obviously more than we
have) yet they still have the same expectations. True, they should be doing better than what they are doing now, but their squad falls way short of the current top 5.
The Liverpool fans wanted Dalglish. They now have Dalglish. The masses now have their ‘messiah’. Where have we heard that before? If King Kenny does not provide the results expected at Liverpool, as Hodgson clearly didn’t, then they want a big name manager – Hiddink, Rijkard  etc.

To be fair, they have a point. Liverpool are a big club and have big ambitions. Some may say unrealistic expectations, but there’s no way a club like Liverpool shouldn’t be challenging for a Europa League  place, especially when the likes of Sunderland, Bolton and Stoke are  above them.

Sadly for Roy, success at a lower level doesn’t always translate into success at a bigger club. His managerial history is evidence of that.  He has had his managerial successes at ‘underdog’ sides such as Fulham and Switzerland, while his stays at Inter Milan and Blackburn were less impressive.

If the Liverpool fans didn’t think Hodgson has the right credentials  to manage Liverpool (he didn’t and I said that from the very
beginning), I fail to see how Coyle does. He has all of 18 months PL  experience. Coyle is destined for big things, I have no doubt about  that, but he’s still a relative novice at this level. He’s still  learning his trade and, looking round the Liverpool forums, their fans  know this.

The red half of Liverpool have never got over the fact they just arn't as pleasing on the eye as the blue half these days !

If you don’t have the majority of the fans (let’s face it, you can’t please all of the people all of the time) behind your appointment,  you’re always going to face an uphill struggle as those against your  appointment will continue to be negative to save face. ‘We won 4-1 but we were negative’ ring any bells?

In essence, you have to do twice as well in order to win over the sceptics. With Liverpool’s squad the way it is, and the expectation  level as high as it is, I consider that to be almost impossible for any  manager other than Dalglish who will get additional time due to his  legendary status at the club.

Sadly, you only get one shot at managing a ‘big’ club (ask Allardyce  and Rioch etc). Allardyce’s stock couldn’t have been higher when he left The Reebok for the final time in April 2007. In eight years, he had turned Bolton Wanderers from Championship strugglers into European contenders. He even managed a domestic cup final and an impressive interview for the England job for good measure. It took less than eight months at Newcastle to destroy that legacy.

Get the boot from a ‘big’ club, even if it is considered a harsh dismissal, and you could ruin all the good work you have done in your career up to that point. You’re forever finished at that level. True, Coyle has got time on his side, but once you are pigeon holed into a ‘level’, it is very difficult to get out.

Coyle has already been linked with the Arsenal job (it’s amazing what a strong media perception can do for a career). He has had continued success at every club he has been at. His star is definitely on the  rise, but if he were to take the Liverpool job at this stage in his  career, and failed (and with the aforementioned expectancy levels and  squad that was more than likely), he’ll be forever remembered as the  man who was sacked by Liverpool.

His success before Liverpool will forever be overlooked, or dismissed with the attitude that ‘it’s easy  to achieve success with Bolton, Burnley and St. Johnstone, but this is  [insert big club name here]‘.

Mark Hughes in another example; whilst at Blackburn, he was talked as being a candidate to replace Ferguson when he eventually retires from Manchester United.

Following ‘failure’ at Manchester City and he’s now at Fulham. Not to worry, it’s ‘his level’. At least he’ll have so much compensationI think the moral of the story is, if you’re offered a job at a ‘big’ club, be sure you’re ready for it. I’m not sure Coyle is.

If the Liverpool job had been offered to Coyle, I’m sure he’d have taken it. He’s an ambitious man and the possibility of managing a club like Liverpool would surely be too much to turn down.
However, I imagine a club in a better position on the field will come in for Coyle at some point if he stays here. We have the media perception now that we play like Brazil. That will attract potential suitors.

Personally, I think the media perception of Allardyce and his style of football always went against him. He achieved far more with us than Coyle has thus far (although I’m sure that will change if Coyle stays here) yet his name was never linked with Liverpool, much to his obvious (and understandable) irritation.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Spurs are interested in him if ‘Arry gets the England job. That wouldn’t have happened had he got the Liverpool job and, despite their respective histories, I know which job I’d prefer upon leaving Bolton.

Liverpool are a big club in decline. The allure of managing Liverpool is obvious, but the reality is not so great, as Hodgson will no doubt tell you. This is the worst Liverpool team in years. They have no chance of cracking the top 5 for the foreseeable future.

If it were any other circumstances, I’d say Coyle would be mad not to manage them, but with the current team and consistent expectation  levels, I think he’d have been in a no win situation.

Thankfully, for us anyway, Coyle was not put in that position. Liverpool’s owners have gone for Dalglish. To be perfectly honest,  it’s just delaying the inevitable. Other clubs will come in for Coyle if he continues his impressive work with us. He is far too good a manager to stay with us long term. We just need to enjoy his time here and, hopefully when he does move on, he’ll leave us in a good position in the league and perhaps a trophy in the cabinet. He is destined for big things that’s for sure and, at the moment, those things are bigger and better than Liverpool.

-Dave Hallsworth-

due to journalistic integrity (and the fact it might not be him) we have blanked out the ugly mush in this pic

(we would like to express, these are not necessarily the views of bwfcforum or manny road)

Superstar Shrek look-a-like Wayne Rooney was last night said to be close to an Old Trafford exit, according to sources.

The former Everton hitman, 24, has been in sensational form for the champions this season, netting his 33rd goal of the campaign in Sunday’s win over rivals Liverpool.

But in news certain to stun the Old Trafford faithful, Rooney was recently seen close to an Old Trafford exit. Our sources, who were allegedly close to the club at the time, also claim to have photos of Rooney in the compromising position. Negotiations to purchase the photos broke down in order to preserve our journalistic integrity.

Englands inform striker’s alleged proximity to the exit door could not come at a worse time for debt-ridden crisis-club United as they prepare for Saturday’s vital clash against local rivals Bolton Wanderers, followed by a run of games that sees them play title rivals Chelsea at Old Trafford followed by local derbies at Blackburn and Manchester City.

The club were keen to refute the rumours, with a clearly flustered club spokesman claiming that the allegations were “completely irrelevant” and “utter nonsense”. The spokesman refused to comment further, whilst Rooney himself was presumed to be unavailable.

The news comes as a further disruption to Italian tactician Fabio Capello’s world cup hopes, following celebrity wideman David Beckham’s Achilles injury.

Controversial former Rhodesian premier, Robert Mugabe, has emerged as the shock front-runner to take over penniless premiership high-flyers Everton.

I guarantee I'll be in the first team by Saturday...

Currently president of the former British colony – now known as “Zimbabwe” – Mugabe’s interest could end chairman Bill Kenwright’s long search for a buyer.

If Mugabe, 86, does take over from theatre impresario Kenwright, he will become the latest in a long line of controversial Everton chairmen believed to include Isaac Newton and Leonardo DaVinci.

An Everton supporter last night told this column: “I’m not bothered who takes over – it could be Robert Mugabe for all I care – as long as we get the investment we need.”

Mugabe’s interest may not be popular in all quarters, however. Known to favour a policy of “hyperinflation”, some fans are already worried that ticket prices will rocket astronomically.

Adding credibility to the rumours, Everton are currently refusing to take calls, whilst Mugabe is believed to be overseas and unavailable for comment.

Lee Chung-Yong’s goal from the Wanderers 3-2 victory over Everton at the Reebok Stadium today. More to follow…

Bolton Vs Everton Lee Chung Yong Goal!! – Funny home videos are a click away

Have your say on Bolton 3-2 Everton in the comment box below…

Gary Megson unveils his latest signing (Pic: vieux bandit, some rights reserved)

Let’s play spot the Wanderers… in (extremely unofficial) association with The Bolton News

The Bolton News has had a bit of a redesign recently. Nothing radical, just a few tweaks here and there and some new fonts. One thing that hasn’t changed is the lack of prominence given to the Wanderers in the site’s navigation.

You might think that a local newspaper with a Premier League football club on their patch would want to make the most of their good fortune, yet from The Bolton News home page there’s no immediate way to access stories about the Wanderers.

There’s plenty of other things on offer: Video, weather, jobs, dating (hence the sex in the headline – see what I did there?) – but no place for the poor old Wanderers.

To find stories about Bolton Wanderers you have to click on Sport, then Wanderers get a place in the sub-navigation menu, in second place behind ‘Ironman Bolton’, whatever that is.

Compare and contrast with the Liverpool Daily Post, who have slots for both Liverpool and Everton in their main navigation.

To be honest, I noticed this navigational snub to the Wanderers a few days ago and wasn’t going to mention it as I’ve made similar points about The Bolton News on several occasions before. But yesterday I spotted a story about the club signing a new deal with Holland’s Pies and it wound me up a treat.

For starters, why does The Bolton News have space for this nonsense when they ignore so many other Bolton Wanderers stories?

Secondly, the opening paragraph reads:

BOLTON Wanderers’ players, manager and fans are supporting the club’s latest “signing”

If you can find any evidence from the rest of the article that a single player, fan, or Gary Megson for that matter gives a toss about the club’s ‘latest signing’ (nearly fell off my chair at that display if wit), you’re a better man than me. There are quotes from commercial director Gareth Moore’s and some PR merchant from Holland’s, but I don’t see any pictures of fans tucking in to pies while giving the thumbs up, or quotes from Gavin McCann about how he wouldn’t touch a Greggs pie with a barge pole.

At the very least you’d think they could have got Tony Kelly to make a statement in support of this glorified press release. Perhaps he was too busy finding a date on The Bolton News.

Given that The Bolton News provided no evidence that Bolton Wanderers fans love Holland’s Pies, let’s see if we can find some here. Feel free to post your pie-based anecdotes in the comment box below…

Image via Wikipedia

Your guide to all the previews and Mystic Meggery from around the web ahead of Bolton Wanderers v West Ham

Reasons to be cheerful…
1. Bolton have never lost to West Ham when Ricardo Gardner is in the team… so the good news is that it looks like he’s fit.

2. 75 per cent of Bolton fans are confident of victory… and even Mark Lawrenson thinks we’ll win.

3. In-form striker Carlton Cole looks set to miss out for the Hammers.

4. Despite West Ham being in much better form, there are actually only six points between Bolton and the Hammers in the league.

5. We beat West Ham at Upton Park earlier this season… although Guanfranco Zola thinks they were a bit unlucky.

6. We have a good record against West Ham, particularly in recent years.

7. Like Tottenham a few weeks ago, West Ham have never won at the Reebok Stadium.

Reasons to be fearful…
8. We haven’t kept a clean sheet since November 8th… and there has never been a goalless draw in the league between these two sides.

9. We were absolutely woeful in our last game at Everton.

Statements of the bleedin’ obvious
10. The Whites are “going all out for victory”, according to The Bolton News (that’s reassuring).

11. Megson doesn’t want a repeat of the Everton performance.

12. Instead, he wants the players to give their full effort (I’d be worried if he didn’t).

What are your predictions for today’s game against West Ham? Have your say in the comments below…

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Even Gary Megson tells it like it is… occassionally

In the aftermath of Gary Megson’s “pathetic” comments a couple of weeks back, it seemed an irreconcilable chasm was slowly opening up between the pro and anti-Megson camps.

Regular readers of this blog will know that I firmly set up camp in anti-Megson territory. In the comments that followed that declaration, the main accusation fired at myself and other anti-Megson fans was that in refusing to blindly back our side, whatever their problems, we were in some way letting them down.

My argument was that burying your head in the sand is not the way to solve any problem, and after the defeat at Everton on Saturday it appears that several people at the club, including Megson himself, agree with me.

Honesty was certainly the best policy for the Wanderers manager, who declared without hesitation that “we’ll go down if we play like that.”

Jussi Jaaskelainen described the performance as “very, very poor“. Gary Cahill, meanwhile, “slammed terrible Bolton.”

So why is it that when fans express similar opinions, they are treated like traitors?

Have your say in the comment box below…

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How the press reported the Wanderers 3-0 hammering at Goodison Park

Ominously, The Observer compared the Wanderers’ performance to Derby of last season and said that Everton beat us with “minimal fuss”. The Express‘ adjectives of choice were “dominated” and “comfortable”.

The News of the World went for “timid” and said Bolton were lucky to be in the game for as long as they were. “Feeble,” said the Times, before going on to say Bolton were “incapable of mounting a serious threat on goal.”

Bolton’s contribution to the game wasn’t even enough to warrant a single mention in the Mail On Sunday or the Sunday Times, whilst in the Mirror rare Bolton efforts at goal by Jlloyd Samuel and Ariza Makukula were described as “weak” and “shocking”.

In the Telegraph Gary Megson was given just one paragraph to explain his side’s dismal showing. It was a pretty telling paragraph, though:

That was a waste of 90 minutes, a complete waste of people being paid a week’s wages, a complete waste of time. If we continue to play like that, we’ll get relegated.

In a separate Telegraph report, Megson gave a damning verdict on his defence when asked about how good Jo’s two-goal contribution to the game was:

He’s a good player but he won’t find it as easy to play against other teams as he did against us.

Before promising:

That was a one off. We won’t be that bad again.

Let’s hope so, Gary.

What was your view of Bolton’s performance at Everton? Have your say in the comments below…

Watch Everton 3-0 Bolton Wanderers video highlights here.

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The Bolton Wanderers match report you won’t read in the papers (or see on Match of the Day)

Here’s what the various Bolton Wanderers message boards made of the 3-0 hammering at Goodison Park:

- “The gulf in class was embarrassing, especially considering Everton played 120 minutes in mid week.”

- “We got absolutely battered: no passion, no skill, no ideas” … “we are on the edge of the abyss.”

- “Gary Megson went way over the top today playing five at the back. He has to go” … “Gretar Steinsson in midfield, Andy O’Brien at right back? He got it totally wrong” … “we completely surrendered the midfield battle.”

- “Why didn’t we get at them rather than letting them have the ball and dominate the play. It’s too negative” … “Everton are nothing special” … “or have they been added to the list, along with the top four, of teams that we just don’t even bother against?”

- “Perhaps selling Kevin Nolan wasn’t such a great idea after all, he’d have got stuck in more than Mark Davies did today.”

- “Megson’s post-match comments were just complete nonsense.” … “blaming everyone else as usual.”

- “Ariza Makukula is not even fit to play in the Championship” … “He has no first touch and is even worse than Mario Jardel.”

- “Where was Ricardo Gardner?”

- “Alan Gowling on GMR said Bolton’s performance was the worst he could remember by a Premier League side.”

- “If this was a blip then fine, but if we really are as bad as this performance suggests then we could well go down.”

OR

- “The fans should stay off Megson’s back. It’s not a game we could realistically expect to win” … “we’ll probably still finish the season somewhere between 8th and 10th.”

- “Why is it that the fans only come out in force on the message boards when we’ve lost?” … “It’s just one bad performance, everyone needs to calm down.”

- “Let’s forget this game. Looking at our next six games, there’s plenty of points up for grabs over the next few weeks.”

Disagree? Have your say in the comments below…

Watch Everton 3-0 Bolton video highlights here

Sources: BBC 606, The Bolton News, The Wanderer, Rivals, Bolton Banter, Bolton Wanderers Mad, Burnden Aces.

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