Would you buy a second hand car off these boys?

Aspirations have changed at Bolton since the dark days of Gary Megson. The arrival of Owen Coyle followed by our impressive start to the season had the more optimistic of us counting air miles and dusting off our Bulgarian phrase-books. Even when European qualification had passed us by – embarrassingly so in the cup – a top half finish was still on the cards right up to the end of the season.

Never mind. Coyle’s inherited Megson’s bunch of cloggers. Once he’s had the summer to make serious changes, we’ll be back to chasing Europe again. Surely relegation battles are a thing of the past? Aren’t they?

Maybe not. Our form after Christmas was relegation-standard, and the end of the season – five defeats on the bounce – was abysmal. It wouldn’t be the first time poor form at the end of one season has carried over to the next. Add to that our tough start to the season and it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see us rock-bottom after the first seven games. We’ll have easier runs to follow, but everything looks that bit tougher if you’re sat at the bottom and confidence may have taken a bit of a battering.

So how relevant is end-of-season form to performance in next campaign? Let’s hope the answer is ‘not very’. Only two previous premier league teams have ever lost their last five matches: Sunderland in 2003 and Derby in 2008. Both teams finished bottom and were relegated. Sunderland set a record low points tally of nineteen. Derby set a new one with eleven. We are therefore proud holders of another record – the only premier league side to have lost their last five games without being relegated.

So are we realistic relegation candidates, and if so who else is? Maybe recent history can give us some pointers.

Teams relegated from the premier league over the last ten years generally fit into one or more of the following categories:

1. Newly promoted

The omens aren't good, Neil

The most obvious category. Thirteen of the last thirty relegated sides were newly promoted, and not since the class of 2001 – Bolton, Blackburn, and Fulham, who are all still there – have all three promoted sides stayed up. Looking on the bright side, it’s 1998 since all three promoted teams were relegated (Bolton, Barnsley, and Crystal Palace), so maybe at least one will survive?

Candidates: QPR, Norwich, Swansea

2. Narrowly avoided relegation
Five of the last ten years’ relegated sides – including each of the last two years – finished in 17th place the previous year, so history suggests there’s a 50:50 chance Wolves will be in the mix next season.
For the record those relegated sides were Derby, Sunderland, West Brom, Hull and West Ham, and those that have survived were Fulham, Wigan, Portsmouth, Everton, and Bolton.

Although no team finishing 16th has been relegated the next year, the closeness of this year’s relegation scrap suggests that the other last day survivors, Wigan and Blackburn, could also be in the mix.
Candidates: Wolves.
Possible: Wigan, Blackburn

3. Second season
Five of the 30 slots have gone to teams ‘enjoying’ their second season in the top flight. In the case of West Brom and Hull, they had also narrowly avoided relegation the previous season, but the other three – Ipswich, Reading, and Birmingham – had finished in the top half.

Newcastle and West Brom are the two clubs facing their second season. West Brom have steadied the ship under Roy Hodgson and will be targeting mid-table at least. Of the two, Newcastle would be the more likely candidates for me, but only because of indications of internal problems and my belief that Pardew is a poor manager, although they should have the finances to build a decent side after the sale of Andy Carroll.

Candidates: Newcastle and West Brom.

4. Finished the previous season badly
Accounts for six of the thirty relegation slots in the last ten years. Two of these were teams that had also narrowly avoided relegation, but the other four all finished comfortably mid-table, albeit in poor form, reminiscent of this year’s Bolton.

Leicester finished the 2000/01 season with nine defeats in their last ten and dropping from 4th to 13th in the process. They carried this form into the new season, getting thumped by newly promoted Bolton in their first game of the new campaign, losing seven of their first ten games, and being rooted to the foot of the table for most of the season.

Southampton finished 12th in 2004 but with only two points from their last five games. Again, this carried over to the new campaign, with them winning only one of their first twelve and ultimately finishing bottom.

Charlton finished the 2005/06 season in 12th place despite four defeats in their last five then started the next season with seven defeats and only one win in their first ten games, ultimately finishing 19th.

Birmingham’s impressive 2009/10 season saw them defy expectations and claim a top ten place, but also saw them win only one of their last ten games. Whilst the following year started with a four-game unbeaten run, they only managed one win in the first eight, and ultimately a poor end to a topsy-turvy season saw them relegated on the last day.

In four of the last ten seasons, one of the relegated teams have had the worst form of any surviving team in the last five games of the previous campaign. Obviously this also means that the other six teams that finished bottom of the form guide survived, including Everton in 2004 and Man City in 2007 who went on to enjoy top half finishes the following year.

Remember, though, that losing your last five games is unprecedented for any surviving club, so Bolton are in uncharted territory. We managed less than a point a game since Christmas (only Blackpool and West Ham had worse records) and with our diabolical away record, a tricky start at newly promoted QPR (reminiscent of Leicester in 2002) closely followed by games against five of last season’s top six and things could look bleak by mid-October.

Last season’s only other premier league ‘survivor’ with less than a point per game in their last five was Arsenal, who are clearly in no danger of relegation.

Candidates: Bolton

5. Other factors
This category covers other potential ‘warning signs’: financial troubles, loss of a long-term manager, change of ownership, daft managerial sackings and disastrous appointments.

Many of the teams already mentioned also fit into this category. Leicester had recently lost Martin O’Neill. Charlton had lost Curbishley and followed up with three managers the following year. Southampton lost Strachan and appointed Sturrock (briefly) then Wigley (laughably), and so on.

Only six of our thirty relegated teams do not fit into at least one of the categories above. Two of these – Leeds in 2004 and Portsmouth in 2010 – were victims of financial meltdown, as the consequences of overspending took them from European qualification to relegation in short time.

Another – Newcastle – had recently changed ownership, and were going through their Laurel and Hardy phase as new owner Mike Ashley was demonstrating why he should never have been allowed anywhere near a professional football club. There were already murmurings of discontent before Keegan walked out at the start of their relegation season.

Barring sudden loss of interest from the Arabs / Russians / Americans, there are a couple of potential candidates from this category.

Blackburn’s recent change of ownership coupled with the appointment of an inexperienced manager probably put them at the top of the list.

Bet you daren't appoint ... him!

Mike Ashley still should be allowed nowhere near a football club, and Newcastle’s sacking of Hughton and appointment of Pardew seems a bit of an odd one. Again there are murmurings from within the club, and the sale of your captain and main goal threat to a championship club doesn’t bode well, so let’s add them too.

Aston Villa’s appointment of McLeish is the most head-scratchingly daft for a while, but they have too much money and (currently) too good a squad to be genuine candidates.

Candidates: Blackburn, Newcastle.

That leaves only three clubs out of the last thirty relegated that were relegated without any of the ‘warning signs’ listed above, which suggests that if you’re an established premier league club not mentioned thus far, you’re probably safe..

Summary: put your money on …
It’s difficult to look beyond the three promoted sides, and likely that at least a couple will be in the mix. Other prime candidates for me would be; Blackburn due to their potential for off-field turmoil with the new owners and because they narrowly avoided relegation this year, Newcastle due to Mike Ashley, Alan Pardew, and second season syndrome, Wolves simply because the worst placed survivor tends to have an even chance of going down, and finally Bolton due to our poor form at the end of last season and our difficult schedule at the start of this one, but mainly so I don’t jinx us by saying we’ll be safe.

To narrow it down further, I’d expect Wolves to build on their survival in the last two seasons and Bolton to have too much pedigree, too solid a set-up and too good a manager to be in the mix after Christmas.

So perm any three from Norwich, QPR, Swansea, Newcastle, and Blackburn.

There you go – the three relegated teams will definitely come out of that bunch. Probably.

- Wakey

Referees cost Bolton £1.44m last season… that’s £9.66m less than Johan

According to this guide on a Hull City fans’ website, Premier League clubs receive an extra £0.72m for every place higher they finish in the final table.

Former referee Jeff Winter has been keeping an alternative Premier League table this season based on where each team would be if all refereeing decisions were correct.

Winter’s league table has Bolton two places higher than the real one, meaning refs cost us £1.44m over the course of the 2008-09 campaign.

Of course, all this relies on you taking Jeff Winter’s word as final, which anyone who saw him refereeing will know is a pretty big leap of faith.

It’s also worth pointing out that the men in black were still almost £10m cheaper than Johan Elmander.

Have your say in the comment box below…

Here’s how the various Bolton Wanderers message boards reacted to the goalless draw with Sunderland…

Positives
- “We have now secured our place in the Premier League for the ninth successive season, which you have to say is a fantastic achievement  however it has been done.”

- “Overall Gary Megson has done a good job and he deserves the chance to prove himself further next season” … “The board should back him with more money.”

- “The second half was marginally better thean the first… although that wasn’t difficult.”

- “Gary Cahill was man of the match yet again” … “Gavin McCann does a great job and does exactly what’s asked of him. It’s time he got some credit too.”

- “Riga and Mark Davies livened things up significantly. They should play every week.”

Negatives
- “We’ve seen some garbage this season but that was a very,very long 90 minutes… the club should start showing re-runs of old cup games on the big screen to keep the fans entertained while the match is on” … “It was as if the players had never met each other before” … “The team has about as much personality as Megson.”

- “We were awful. Sunderland would have won 3-0 if they could finish” … “This does not bode well for the entertainment value and attendances at the Reebok next season” … “Surely season ticket sales are going to be massively down” … “Watching us struggle at home against a team as bad as Sunderland really is the final straw.”

- “And Megson’s post-match comments didn’t help either.”

- “Johan Elmander is short on confidence and needs a goal but you have to question whether he’ll ever make the grade.”

- “Megson is obsessed with the idea of players who put a shift in, but that’s not enough” … “He shouldn’t be given the chance to waste more of our money on the likes of Elmander and Fabrice Muamba again this summer.”

- “It wouldn’t be a surprise if Hull outplay us next week too.”

Disagree? Have your say on the game in the comment box below…

Watch Bolton Wanderers 0-0 Sunderland video highlights here

Sources: The Bolton News, Burnden Aces, Rivals, Bolton Banter, BBC 606, Bolton Wanderers Mad, The Wanderer

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Ins
Fans of any clubs managed by Gary Megson will know the ginger one is partial to hairy moments near the bottom, but it looks like he’s now decided to tidy up (Bolton’s uninspiring midfield, not his nether regions thank God) with a Brazilian.

Yes, in a move reminiscent of Rivaldo’s brief flirtation with a move to the Reebok five years ago, Megson has signed World Cup winner Denilson, albeit on a trial basis. Let’s hope Euxton is being treated to a few gems like this…

[youtube=http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=5L7sz5iRkE8]

Perhaps a deal clincher for Denilson could be the prospect of playing alongside, er, Birmingham City’s Cameron Jerome.

A less sensational – but probably more pragmatic in the long term – addition to the Wanderers midfield, could be Wolves’ Michael Kightly.

Fans hoping for a replacement for Andy O’Brien may be disappointed should Calum Davenport arrive from West Ham, judging by this write up of his credentials.

Outs
After the ridiculous speculation about a move to Chelsea, a more realistic destination for Kevin Davies could be Hull City… a move made more likely given that Davies is one of the players rumoured to have upset Megson with his lack of effort recently.

Shaking it all abouts
They’ve been linked with both Ronaldos, Ronaldinho, Kaka, Buffon and now… an £8 million move for Kevin Nolan… yeah right!

Reports of a return to the Reebok for El-Hadji Diouf also appear to have been greatly exaggerated, because if Sunderland really do want to let him go – which they don’t according to this – then Blackburn would appear to be the frontrunners.

And it appears no amount of money will tempt West Brom to sell James Morrison. It appears their manager is a little upset with ours, although that by no means makes him unique.

Seen a Wanderers transfer rumour? Share it in the comment box below.

Have your say on who the Wanderers should sign this January here.

There was a time when the Premier League’s big four feared playing Bolton Wanderers.

During the Sam Allardyce era the Whites beat all of them – Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea – at one time or another.

Last season – our first full one in the Premier League without Allardyce – we managed just four points against big four.

This season has been even worse. We’ve lost all five games we’ve played against the big four, and we’ve also lost against the two teams closest to breaking in to the top four: Everton and Aston Villa.

After the defeat to Liverpool yesterday, some fans said that it was as if we now expected to lose games against the big teams.

Gary Megson’s comments on Match of the Day, when he said that Bolton’s season won’t be defined by games against the likes of Liverpool, certainly seems to back that up.

So, is Megson to blame for our poor form against the big four? Has he got his tactics all wrong for these kinds of games?

Should Bolton look to attack the big four like Phil Brown’s Hull City do?

Why has Bolton’s form against the big teams been so poor this season?

Have your say in the comment box below.

At number 7 in my countdown of the best Bolton Wanderers players of 2008 is…

7. Jussi Jaaskelainen

Highs
Solid performances throughout the year, with the highlight coming with a string of stunning saves against Hull City.

Lows
Holding the club to ransom by saying he wanted to leave, then demanding a testimonial when he eventually did sign a new contract.

You can see the top 10 Bolton Wanderers players of 2008 in full here.

If you disagree with any of my choices or have any views on the players I’ve picked, please feel free to have your say in the comment box below. I might even argue back.

It was unthinkable a few weeks ago, but after winning five of their last eight games (and only losing to teams you would expect to finish above them anyway: Chelsea, Liverpool, Aston Villa), Bolton are now up to 9th in the Premier League table.

Last season it took 60 points for Villa to get in to the Uefa Cup and when Bolton qualified before it took 56 and 58 points.

On current form the Wanderers would only get around 48 points by the end of the season, but with so many teams beating each other the number needed to finish in the top six or seven is likely to be significantly lower than in previous years (Arsene Wenger has said it will take less points to win the title this season too).

Only last week Portsmouth, a team that Bolton beat comfortably yesterday, were being tipped for a European place. And the chairman of Hull City – who are only four points above us – has also said their priority now is getting in to Europe (it’s worth pointing out that while Bolton have picked up 15 of the last 24 points available to them, Hull have taken just 7 of their last 24 points).

Should Bolton now be looking to push on for the European places in 2009, or is survival in the Premier League still the main priority?

Who should Bolton sign in January to try to help continue Bolton’s rise up the table?

Could Gary Megson really lead Bolton in to Europe… or have I gone completely mad?

Have your say in the comment box below… I might even argue back!

- The incredible news that the referee for this weekend’s clash against Liverpool will be… Rob Styles! (I’m sure he’ll be made very welcome).

- This interesting piece which argues that supporting Bolton Wanderers is more rewarding than supporting Manchester United (I’ve always said that supporting a crap football team makes you a better, more likeable person… how many Man United fans have you met and though ‘he’s a nice bloke’?).

- Rumours that Heidar Helguson could be on his way to QPR.

- Gary Megson paying tribute to the work that Sammy Lee did at Bolton (that’s not what he was saying earlier this season).

- Megson praising his players. Their achievement? They managed to play in a 4-4-2 against Hull (what geniuses they are!). There’s a sly little dig at Phil Brown in there too.

- Owen Coyle reviving the spirit of the White Hot years by leading his Burnley team to victory over Chelsea in the Carling Cup.

And finally… here’s a reminder of what Charlie Nicholas on Sky Sports thought about Styles’ performance the last time he refereed a Bolton Wanderers match…

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZiTxhTC_EE&feature=related]

There was a big debate on the BBC 606 Wanderers message board last week about Jussi Jaaskelainen. It started after someone posted a link to my piece from the summer in which I said Jaaskelainen doesn’t deserve a testimonial from Bolton Wanderers.

Of course, my side of the argument wasn’t done any favours by Jaaskelainen’s heroics against Hull on Saturday, but I did say in my fans’ view match report of the game – in which I reported that fans were saying I’d been made to look like an idiot – that I’d address this subject again. So here goes…

Firstly, my argument with Jaaskelainen was never about his ability. I’ve been saying for years that if I had to pick a squad of the Premier League’s best players then Jaaskelainen would be one of my three keepers. He is easily good enough to have played for one of the big four and I’ve always been baffled as to why Arsenal – who have been the weakest in that department in recent years – have never tried to sign him.

Nor would I argue with his ‘legendary status’. By any measure he will go down as one of the club’s greatest ever players.

My argument was that having allowed his agent to hold the club to ransom last season and declaring he was going to leave, it’s a bit rich to then turn around and ask for a testimonial as part of your new contract.

In an age when players can earn in a year what many of us couldn’t even earn in a lifetime, the testimonials – which were traditionally about giving players a financial nest egg to help them make the transition back to normal working life (buy a pub, start a business etc) – are now completely unnecessary.

The financial function of the testimonial is now redundant, therefore the only point of them is for supporters to show their respect and appreciation to an individual player. In my view that is redundant too. We already show him respect by paying (a lot) to go to games and singing his name every week, which is more respect than he showed supporters last season.

In the 606 discussion it was pointed out that Jaaskelainen never actually said anything. But nor did he contradict it. In fact, by saying nothing at all and allowing his agent to do all the dirty work for him, he made himself look pretty cowardly. I notice that he was happy to speak out – without the need for Peter Harrison to act as middle man – when it came to taking the plaudits for reaching 400 appearances in a Wanderers shirt.

The other thing that was said in the discussion is that money from testimonials normally goes to charity these days. Again, though, he’s not actually said that that would be the case.

If he comes out and says all the money will go to charity, then fine. I hope the Reebok sells out for it. But if it’s nice little earner and a love-in with the fans that he’s after, then I hope supporters show him the same respect he showed us: none.