Would you buy a second hand car off these boys?

Aspirations have changed at Bolton since the dark days of Gary Megson. The arrival of Owen Coyle followed by our impressive start to the season had the more optimistic of us counting air miles and dusting off our Bulgarian phrase-books. Even when European qualification had passed us by – embarrassingly so in the cup – a top half finish was still on the cards right up to the end of the season.

Never mind. Coyle’s inherited Megson’s bunch of cloggers. Once he’s had the summer to make serious changes, we’ll be back to chasing Europe again. Surely relegation battles are a thing of the past? Aren’t they?

Maybe not. Our form after Christmas was relegation-standard, and the end of the season – five defeats on the bounce – was abysmal. It wouldn’t be the first time poor form at the end of one season has carried over to the next. Add to that our tough start to the season and it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see us rock-bottom after the first seven games. We’ll have easier runs to follow, but everything looks that bit tougher if you’re sat at the bottom and confidence may have taken a bit of a battering.

So how relevant is end-of-season form to performance in next campaign? Let’s hope the answer is ‘not very’. Only two previous premier league teams have ever lost their last five matches: Sunderland in 2003 and Derby in 2008. Both teams finished bottom and were relegated. Sunderland set a record low points tally of nineteen. Derby set a new one with eleven. We are therefore proud holders of another record – the only premier league side to have lost their last five games without being relegated.

So are we realistic relegation candidates, and if so who else is? Maybe recent history can give us some pointers.

Teams relegated from the premier league over the last ten years generally fit into one or more of the following categories:

1. Newly promoted

The omens aren't good, Neil

The most obvious category. Thirteen of the last thirty relegated sides were newly promoted, and not since the class of 2001 – Bolton, Blackburn, and Fulham, who are all still there – have all three promoted sides stayed up. Looking on the bright side, it’s 1998 since all three promoted teams were relegated (Bolton, Barnsley, and Crystal Palace), so maybe at least one will survive?

Candidates: QPR, Norwich, Swansea

2. Narrowly avoided relegation
Five of the last ten years’ relegated sides – including each of the last two years – finished in 17th place the previous year, so history suggests there’s a 50:50 chance Wolves will be in the mix next season.
For the record those relegated sides were Derby, Sunderland, West Brom, Hull and West Ham, and those that have survived were Fulham, Wigan, Portsmouth, Everton, and Bolton.

Although no team finishing 16th has been relegated the next year, the closeness of this year’s relegation scrap suggests that the other last day survivors, Wigan and Blackburn, could also be in the mix.
Candidates: Wolves.
Possible: Wigan, Blackburn

3. Second season
Five of the 30 slots have gone to teams ‘enjoying’ their second season in the top flight. In the case of West Brom and Hull, they had also narrowly avoided relegation the previous season, but the other three – Ipswich, Reading, and Birmingham – had finished in the top half.

Newcastle and West Brom are the two clubs facing their second season. West Brom have steadied the ship under Roy Hodgson and will be targeting mid-table at least. Of the two, Newcastle would be the more likely candidates for me, but only because of indications of internal problems and my belief that Pardew is a poor manager, although they should have the finances to build a decent side after the sale of Andy Carroll.

Candidates: Newcastle and West Brom.

4. Finished the previous season badly
Accounts for six of the thirty relegation slots in the last ten years. Two of these were teams that had also narrowly avoided relegation, but the other four all finished comfortably mid-table, albeit in poor form, reminiscent of this year’s Bolton.

Leicester finished the 2000/01 season with nine defeats in their last ten and dropping from 4th to 13th in the process. They carried this form into the new season, getting thumped by newly promoted Bolton in their first game of the new campaign, losing seven of their first ten games, and being rooted to the foot of the table for most of the season.

Southampton finished 12th in 2004 but with only two points from their last five games. Again, this carried over to the new campaign, with them winning only one of their first twelve and ultimately finishing bottom.

Charlton finished the 2005/06 season in 12th place despite four defeats in their last five then started the next season with seven defeats and only one win in their first ten games, ultimately finishing 19th.

Birmingham’s impressive 2009/10 season saw them defy expectations and claim a top ten place, but also saw them win only one of their last ten games. Whilst the following year started with a four-game unbeaten run, they only managed one win in the first eight, and ultimately a poor end to a topsy-turvy season saw them relegated on the last day.

In four of the last ten seasons, one of the relegated teams have had the worst form of any surviving team in the last five games of the previous campaign. Obviously this also means that the other six teams that finished bottom of the form guide survived, including Everton in 2004 and Man City in 2007 who went on to enjoy top half finishes the following year.

Remember, though, that losing your last five games is unprecedented for any surviving club, so Bolton are in uncharted territory. We managed less than a point a game since Christmas (only Blackpool and West Ham had worse records) and with our diabolical away record, a tricky start at newly promoted QPR (reminiscent of Leicester in 2002) closely followed by games against five of last season’s top six and things could look bleak by mid-October.

Last season’s only other premier league ‘survivor’ with less than a point per game in their last five was Arsenal, who are clearly in no danger of relegation.

Candidates: Bolton

5. Other factors
This category covers other potential ‘warning signs’: financial troubles, loss of a long-term manager, change of ownership, daft managerial sackings and disastrous appointments.

Many of the teams already mentioned also fit into this category. Leicester had recently lost Martin O’Neill. Charlton had lost Curbishley and followed up with three managers the following year. Southampton lost Strachan and appointed Sturrock (briefly) then Wigley (laughably), and so on.

Only six of our thirty relegated teams do not fit into at least one of the categories above. Two of these – Leeds in 2004 and Portsmouth in 2010 – were victims of financial meltdown, as the consequences of overspending took them from European qualification to relegation in short time.

Another – Newcastle – had recently changed ownership, and were going through their Laurel and Hardy phase as new owner Mike Ashley was demonstrating why he should never have been allowed anywhere near a professional football club. There were already murmurings of discontent before Keegan walked out at the start of their relegation season.

Barring sudden loss of interest from the Arabs / Russians / Americans, there are a couple of potential candidates from this category.

Blackburn’s recent change of ownership coupled with the appointment of an inexperienced manager probably put them at the top of the list.

Bet you daren't appoint ... him!

Mike Ashley still should be allowed nowhere near a football club, and Newcastle’s sacking of Hughton and appointment of Pardew seems a bit of an odd one. Again there are murmurings from within the club, and the sale of your captain and main goal threat to a championship club doesn’t bode well, so let’s add them too.

Aston Villa’s appointment of McLeish is the most head-scratchingly daft for a while, but they have too much money and (currently) too good a squad to be genuine candidates.

Candidates: Blackburn, Newcastle.

That leaves only three clubs out of the last thirty relegated that were relegated without any of the ‘warning signs’ listed above, which suggests that if you’re an established premier league club not mentioned thus far, you’re probably safe..

Summary: put your money on …
It’s difficult to look beyond the three promoted sides, and likely that at least a couple will be in the mix. Other prime candidates for me would be; Blackburn due to their potential for off-field turmoil with the new owners and because they narrowly avoided relegation this year, Newcastle due to Mike Ashley, Alan Pardew, and second season syndrome, Wolves simply because the worst placed survivor tends to have an even chance of going down, and finally Bolton due to our poor form at the end of last season and our difficult schedule at the start of this one, but mainly so I don’t jinx us by saying we’ll be safe.

To narrow it down further, I’d expect Wolves to build on their survival in the last two seasons and Bolton to have too much pedigree, too solid a set-up and too good a manager to be in the mix after Christmas.

So perm any three from Norwich, QPR, Swansea, Newcastle, and Blackburn.

There you go – the three relegated teams will definitely come out of that bunch. Probably.

- Wakey

‘..mowbray it is then all im thinkin now is please please dont be megson’

‘NOT MEGSON’

‘I don’t care if we get Donald Duck as long as he gets us winning matches, as long as it isn’t Megson’

‘Gary Megson and Phil Brown… jesus, i’m ready to slash my wrists, although I might just wait until we have a definite announcement! f*****g Gary Megson!!’

The Bolton News got in on the act on Thursday.

‘Middlesbrough close in on Megson’, ran the headline.

Wanderers fans would like to close in on the Ginger One, but only in the same way that a pride of hungry lions would do on an unsuspecting warthog.

It’s not been easy being a ‘Boro fan for a while now. Gareth Southgate, relegation, failure to win promotion and a soulless stadium in the middle of an industrial wasteland have seen to that.  They’ve only just got rid of one copper-topped wazzock, it seems cruel to foist another upon them.

Meanwhile, Megson has been spending his spare hours (ie all of them) helping out at the local homeless shelter. With limited success we understand.

Wayne’s Staying Put

The most amusing sight of last week was the staff at Old Trafford hurriedly ripping down the giant poster of Wayne Rooney that adorned the front of the building, as Britain’s most high profile user of escort services announced that he was off on his toes.

Since then there’s been a change of heart.  Speculation about why has failed to find an answer.  A wage increase? Promises of squad strengthening? Bananas?

Yes, you read that last bit right.  A few years ago, citizens of Coacalco, Mexico, stormed the town hall and forced the mayor to resign, but not until after they’d made him eat twelve pounds of bananas.

Perhaps the seething mob who congregated outside Rooney’s house last Thursday night, tried the same tactic.  Given the Chav Master General’s resemblance to a certain primate it was worth a shot.

A New Start for the BWSA

The cardigan and slippers brigade aka Bolton Wanderers Supporters Association has needed a swift boot up the arse for some time now.  Last Tuesday, at the AGM, it may have received one, as new members were co-opted onto the committee.

The Gang of Four weren't welcomed by everyone

The move was opposed by a highly vocal trio of blue rinsers, who placed a delightfully bitchy post on the Bolton News Forum dubbing the newbies the ‘Gang of Four’, and declaring that they had bad hair and less than snappy dress sense. Ooh.

Despite falling attendances and a bleak economic outlook, crowds at the Reebok still top 20,000.  The Junior Whites boasts a membership of 11,000.  Bolton, as a town, has a population of a quarter of a million.  Sixty-five people attended Tuesday’s meeting.

Placing blame for that situation would be as pointless, as it is unfair.  With a new and popular manager, and a feeling of excitement that has been absent for some years, it’s time to look to the future. Bolton chairman Phil Gartside has spoken of the need to reconnect with the fans.  Having to find them first makes the exercise more difficult than it might be.

Future developments will be discussed here, on a dedicated website, and in the match programme.  In the meantime, if you’d like more details about joining the BWSA (cardigan wearers still welcome) then drop an e-mail to roadrunner@bwfc.co.uk

- Richard McCormick

Image via Wikipedia

How the national press reported Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Aston Villa

It seems like we’ve been hearing this for weeks now, but yet again we’re told by the Mail that Bolton are just one win away from definite safety. The same paper also tells us that Gary Megson believes Bolton have “hearts as big as buckets all over the pitch.”

Big hearts maybe (although that wasn’t necessarily the case at Portsmouth last week), but the Guardian thought the Wanderers display lacked inspiration, saying that “the highlights of this encounter will not make it into any PowerPoint presentations put together for Bolton chairman Phil Gartside’s proposed two-tier top-flight that would include Celtic, Rangers and, of course, Wanderers.”

Clearly avoiding relegation from this version of the Premier League, or any other, is the only measure of Bolton Wanderers’ success as far as the Times is concerned. Their reporter, without any sense of irony, suggests that the fact no-one is talking about Bolton as serious relegation contenders is a “huge compliment to Megson”.

In recognition of the fact that there’s clearly nothing else worth talking about with Bolton (has he seen us play?), the Times dedicated almost their entire report to unpicking the collapse of Aston Villa’s Champions League aspirations instead.

Of course the Times could have questionned Megson’s wisdom for spending so much money on Johan Elmander, but instead – as usual – it was left to the fans in the Observer to make that point. As the Express points out, it’s now just five goals in 26 starts for Elmander.

The Times could also have noted Bolton’s failure to win any of their last three games, or their inability to string passes together, as the Telegraph did.

The Times weren’t alone, though. The News of the World seem to think Megson keeping Bolton up is a miracle (seriously, have you seen how bad West Brom, Middlesbrough, Newcastle, Sunderland etc etc are?).

Disagree? Have your say on the game in the comment box below…

Read the fans’ view of the game here

Watch Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Aston Villa video highlights here

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Your guide to all the pre-match predictions and Mystic Meggery ahead of Chelsea v Bolton Wanderers

Reasons to be cheerful…
1. Only Arsenal have a better record at Stamford Bridge than Bolton in recent years… in fact we have only lost once in our last five visits to Chelsea.

2. Kevin Davies isn’t too disappointed that his rumoured January move to Chelsea never materialised. In fact, he thought it was as funny as everyone else did.

3. Bolton are able to name the same team that thrashed Middlesbrough last week, whilst Chelsea have one or two defensive selection headaches.

4. Due to our shocking performances in cup competitions, Chelsea have played 15 games more than Bolton so far this season.

Reasons to be fearful…
5. Chelsea have rather a lot to play for… Bolton, on the other hand – having now proven that we’re not quite as bad as all the other really bad teams in the Premier League this season – do not.

6. Michael Essien did a pretty good job of silencing Steven Gerrard the other night, so he shouldn’t have too much bother with Gavin McCann.

7. By Gary Megson’s own admission, we’re absolutely useless against the big four these days.

8. And the Bolton manager appears to have half a mind on a spot of West End shopping while he’s in London.

9. We have only kept one clean sheet in our last 19 Premier League games.

10. As usual, Megson has made a point of letting his opposite number know just how fantastic he thinks he is… although the ginger one has at least stuck the boot in by tipping Manchester United for the title (not that this will exactly endear him to Wanderers fans).

11. Chelsea have lost just once since Guus Hiddink replaced Phil Scolari… oh, and they had quite a good win in Europe mid-week.

12. Chelsea seem to think we won’t leave without putting up a fight (see Petr Cech below for more Bolton Wanderers cliches). Clearly they didn’t see our performances at Fulham, Spurs and Stoke earlier this season.

Reasons to be bored…
13. Here’s the obligatory pre-match “Bolton are a really tough side because they play direct football” bullshit, this week starring Petr Cech.

Share your predictions for the game in the comment box below…

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Have your say on Bolton Wanderers in the comment box below…

The Guardian says that Middlesbrough committed suicide before completely laying in to Gareth Southgate and his side for their woeful defending. It’s not until paragraph 10 that Bolton get any credit for Ricardo Gardner’s one “well-worked goal.” Even the Bolton fan who gave his verdict in the Observer thought that the result flattered the Wanderers.

There was also talk of suicide in the Times, who suggested Southgate might fall on his sword after his side “capitulated”. But at least they credited Bolton with making the most of their opponents’ woes.

In the Express the metaphor was sinking ships, with Southgate compared to the captain of the Titanic.

Bolton’s probable safety rather than Boro’s increasingly likely relegation was relatively high on the Telegraph’s agenda (something which left Gary Megson beaming, according to the Daily Mail), although their report also suggests most of the Wanderers’ goals came against the run of play. The Independent goes one step further, saying Middlesbrough could have won the game.

The Mirror seemed to think that Kevin Davies’ opening goal after eight minutes was the key moment of the match, so much so that they included it in a rather strange headline (did their reporter fall asleep after this?).

What did you think of the game? Have your say in the comment box below…

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Here’s what the various Bolton Wanderers message boards made of the 4-1 thrashing of Middlesbrough on Saturday…

Positives
- “It was a great result and the relegation pressure should now be off for the rest of the season.”

- “Danny Shittu was probably our best player… he deserves to keep his place in the team.”

- “Gavin McCann had a good game and made loads of tackles. He made up for Fabrice Muamba’s lacklustre display” … “Muamba should be replaced by Chris Basham for a while.”

- “Ricardo Gardner was outstanding too” … “Gary Megson should take some credit for Gardner’s resurgence.”

- “The anti-Megson brigade has gone very quiet” … “Someone should make a Megson In banner.”

- “The matchday programme was an interesting read. It’s got much better since it no longer contains Kevin Nolan’s pre-match thoughts.”

Negatives
- “We were only good in patches and could have had problems if Middlesbrough weren’t completely useless.”

- “We created enough chances to win the game in the first half but then let them back in to it… and their defence was truly awful” … “On another day Middlesbrough could easily have won it.”

- “Johan Elmander had another poor game, he still doesn’t look like he’s fully fit yet” … “Ebi Smolarek should’ve played after he scored four goals for Poland” … OR “People should get off Elmander’s back, he’ll come good soon.”

- “When we were 3-1 up why didn’t Megson make use of his subs to rest players?”

Disagree? Have your say in the comment box below…

Sources: BBC 606, The Bolton News, The Wanderer, Rivals, Burnden Aces, Bolton Banter, Bolton Wanderers Mad

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Here are the first-half goals from Bolton’s brilliant 4-1 win over Middlesbrough today, Kevin Davies and Gary Cahill both getting on the scoresheet. Hopefully get the second-half goals up soon too…

UPDATE: Here’s the second half…

Were you at the game? Have your say on Bolton Wanderers 4-1 Middlesbrough in the comment box below…

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Your guide to all the predictions and Mystic Meggery ahead of Bolton Wanderers v Middlesbrough

Reasons to be cheerful
1. Middlesbrough have far more injury concerns – Tuncay, Adam Johnson, Robert Huth to name a few – than Bolton, although Andy O’Brien will be back in contention for a place, so…

2. Boro are currently 19th in the Premier League, largely because they have failed to score in 10 of their last 13 league games.

3. Gareth Southgate’s men suffered a demoralising defeat at Stoke last time out.

4. Southgate has even turned to social networking site Twitter as he tries to find answers ahead of today’s clash (allegedly).

5. When Bolton played Middlesbrough at the Riverside earlier this season we recorded one of our best results of the season.

6. According to this analysis, Boro are seriously lacking a captain, creativity in midfield, strikers, mental toughness and a decent goalkeeper. And you thought Bolton have got it bad.

7. Kevin Davies will be determined to prove Fabio Capello wrong, although given that England won both games last week, that’s actually quite a difficult thing to do. Even if Davies scores a hat-trick, I’m sure Mr Capello will sleep quite well tonight. Still, at least Bolton fans will have a good night.

Reasons to be fearful
8. Much like when Bolton travelled to Middlesbrough near the end of last season, Boro will be desperate for a win and, given that Bolton have not exactly been ripping up trees lately, they’ll have earmarked this as a game they can get points from as they seek to avoid the drop… well that’s what it says here anyway. Of course, if Boro weren’t in desperate need of points then I’m sure this story would have been replaced by the usual “we don’t fear Bolton’s physical approach” bullshit.

9. Bolton have not won in over a month and Mark Davies won’t be around to help change that.

10. As usual, Gary Megson has been doing his best to make our opponents feel better about themselves.

11. In our last home game, when nobody gave Fulham a chance, we managed to get beaten 3-1 thanks to some woeful defending.

12. So if Southgate’s plan to go on the attack is true we could be screwed… especially if Andy O’Brien is playing again.

What are your predictions for today’s game between Bolton Wanderers and Middlesbrough? Have your say in the comment box below…

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Bolton travelled to the Riverside Stadium back in November and recorded their best away win of the season to date (an even better one was to follow at Sunderland a week later).

Goals from Gretar Steinsson, Matt Taylor and Johan Elmander sealed an impressive win over Gareth Southgate’s side. Let’s hope for more of the same tomorrow…

First half

Second half

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