Would you buy a second hand car off these boys?

Aspirations have changed at Bolton since the dark days of Gary Megson. The arrival of Owen Coyle followed by our impressive start to the season had the more optimistic of us counting air miles and dusting off our Bulgarian phrase-books. Even when European qualification had passed us by – embarrassingly so in the cup – a top half finish was still on the cards right up to the end of the season.

Never mind. Coyle’s inherited Megson’s bunch of cloggers. Once he’s had the summer to make serious changes, we’ll be back to chasing Europe again. Surely relegation battles are a thing of the past? Aren’t they?

Maybe not. Our form after Christmas was relegation-standard, and the end of the season – five defeats on the bounce – was abysmal. It wouldn’t be the first time poor form at the end of one season has carried over to the next. Add to that our tough start to the season and it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see us rock-bottom after the first seven games. We’ll have easier runs to follow, but everything looks that bit tougher if you’re sat at the bottom and confidence may have taken a bit of a battering.

So how relevant is end-of-season form to performance in next campaign? Let’s hope the answer is ‘not very’. Only two previous premier league teams have ever lost their last five matches: Sunderland in 2003 and Derby in 2008. Both teams finished bottom and were relegated. Sunderland set a record low points tally of nineteen. Derby set a new one with eleven. We are therefore proud holders of another record – the only premier league side to have lost their last five games without being relegated.

So are we realistic relegation candidates, and if so who else is? Maybe recent history can give us some pointers.

Teams relegated from the premier league over the last ten years generally fit into one or more of the following categories:

1. Newly promoted

The omens aren't good, Neil

The most obvious category. Thirteen of the last thirty relegated sides were newly promoted, and not since the class of 2001 – Bolton, Blackburn, and Fulham, who are all still there – have all three promoted sides stayed up. Looking on the bright side, it’s 1998 since all three promoted teams were relegated (Bolton, Barnsley, and Crystal Palace), so maybe at least one will survive?

Candidates: QPR, Norwich, Swansea

2. Narrowly avoided relegation
Five of the last ten years’ relegated sides – including each of the last two years – finished in 17th place the previous year, so history suggests there’s a 50:50 chance Wolves will be in the mix next season.
For the record those relegated sides were Derby, Sunderland, West Brom, Hull and West Ham, and those that have survived were Fulham, Wigan, Portsmouth, Everton, and Bolton.

Although no team finishing 16th has been relegated the next year, the closeness of this year’s relegation scrap suggests that the other last day survivors, Wigan and Blackburn, could also be in the mix.
Candidates: Wolves.
Possible: Wigan, Blackburn

3. Second season
Five of the 30 slots have gone to teams ‘enjoying’ their second season in the top flight. In the case of West Brom and Hull, they had also narrowly avoided relegation the previous season, but the other three – Ipswich, Reading, and Birmingham – had finished in the top half.

Newcastle and West Brom are the two clubs facing their second season. West Brom have steadied the ship under Roy Hodgson and will be targeting mid-table at least. Of the two, Newcastle would be the more likely candidates for me, but only because of indications of internal problems and my belief that Pardew is a poor manager, although they should have the finances to build a decent side after the sale of Andy Carroll.

Candidates: Newcastle and West Brom.

4. Finished the previous season badly
Accounts for six of the thirty relegation slots in the last ten years. Two of these were teams that had also narrowly avoided relegation, but the other four all finished comfortably mid-table, albeit in poor form, reminiscent of this year’s Bolton.

Leicester finished the 2000/01 season with nine defeats in their last ten and dropping from 4th to 13th in the process. They carried this form into the new season, getting thumped by newly promoted Bolton in their first game of the new campaign, losing seven of their first ten games, and being rooted to the foot of the table for most of the season.

Southampton finished 12th in 2004 but with only two points from their last five games. Again, this carried over to the new campaign, with them winning only one of their first twelve and ultimately finishing bottom.

Charlton finished the 2005/06 season in 12th place despite four defeats in their last five then started the next season with seven defeats and only one win in their first ten games, ultimately finishing 19th.

Birmingham’s impressive 2009/10 season saw them defy expectations and claim a top ten place, but also saw them win only one of their last ten games. Whilst the following year started with a four-game unbeaten run, they only managed one win in the first eight, and ultimately a poor end to a topsy-turvy season saw them relegated on the last day.

In four of the last ten seasons, one of the relegated teams have had the worst form of any surviving team in the last five games of the previous campaign. Obviously this also means that the other six teams that finished bottom of the form guide survived, including Everton in 2004 and Man City in 2007 who went on to enjoy top half finishes the following year.

Remember, though, that losing your last five games is unprecedented for any surviving club, so Bolton are in uncharted territory. We managed less than a point a game since Christmas (only Blackpool and West Ham had worse records) and with our diabolical away record, a tricky start at newly promoted QPR (reminiscent of Leicester in 2002) closely followed by games against five of last season’s top six and things could look bleak by mid-October.

Last season’s only other premier league ‘survivor’ with less than a point per game in their last five was Arsenal, who are clearly in no danger of relegation.

Candidates: Bolton

5. Other factors
This category covers other potential ‘warning signs’: financial troubles, loss of a long-term manager, change of ownership, daft managerial sackings and disastrous appointments.

Many of the teams already mentioned also fit into this category. Leicester had recently lost Martin O’Neill. Charlton had lost Curbishley and followed up with three managers the following year. Southampton lost Strachan and appointed Sturrock (briefly) then Wigley (laughably), and so on.

Only six of our thirty relegated teams do not fit into at least one of the categories above. Two of these – Leeds in 2004 and Portsmouth in 2010 – were victims of financial meltdown, as the consequences of overspending took them from European qualification to relegation in short time.

Another – Newcastle – had recently changed ownership, and were going through their Laurel and Hardy phase as new owner Mike Ashley was demonstrating why he should never have been allowed anywhere near a professional football club. There were already murmurings of discontent before Keegan walked out at the start of their relegation season.

Barring sudden loss of interest from the Arabs / Russians / Americans, there are a couple of potential candidates from this category.

Blackburn’s recent change of ownership coupled with the appointment of an inexperienced manager probably put them at the top of the list.

Bet you daren't appoint ... him!

Mike Ashley still should be allowed nowhere near a football club, and Newcastle’s sacking of Hughton and appointment of Pardew seems a bit of an odd one. Again there are murmurings from within the club, and the sale of your captain and main goal threat to a championship club doesn’t bode well, so let’s add them too.

Aston Villa’s appointment of McLeish is the most head-scratchingly daft for a while, but they have too much money and (currently) too good a squad to be genuine candidates.

Candidates: Blackburn, Newcastle.

That leaves only three clubs out of the last thirty relegated that were relegated without any of the ‘warning signs’ listed above, which suggests that if you’re an established premier league club not mentioned thus far, you’re probably safe..

Summary: put your money on …
It’s difficult to look beyond the three promoted sides, and likely that at least a couple will be in the mix. Other prime candidates for me would be; Blackburn due to their potential for off-field turmoil with the new owners and because they narrowly avoided relegation this year, Newcastle due to Mike Ashley, Alan Pardew, and second season syndrome, Wolves simply because the worst placed survivor tends to have an even chance of going down, and finally Bolton due to our poor form at the end of last season and our difficult schedule at the start of this one, but mainly so I don’t jinx us by saying we’ll be safe.

To narrow it down further, I’d expect Wolves to build on their survival in the last two seasons and Bolton to have too much pedigree, too solid a set-up and too good a manager to be in the mix after Christmas.

So perm any three from Norwich, QPR, Swansea, Newcastle, and Blackburn.

There you go – the three relegated teams will definitely come out of that bunch. Probably.

- Wakey

Pay your money, sit down, shut up and enjoy the one-way ride to mediocrity...

Gary Megson’s supporters in the media are totally missing the point

Something’s been puzzling me for a while. Why are the media so keen to criticise Bolton fans for our treatment of Gary Megson?

In some of my previous posts I’ve suggested that it’s caused by people who have no emotional (and therefore irrational) attachment to the club finding it impossible to fully understand how Megson has undermined the spirit that has been slowly built over the last 15-20 years.

But after reading some of the reports of the latest Megson hate-in, against Stoke at the Reebok on Saturday, I’ve come up with another theory.

The Independent’s match report trotted out the usual line about Megson deserving more credit than he gets from Bolton fans, despite also saying it was a ‘dismal display’ by the Whites in the very same report.

The Bolton News described the Wanderers performance as ‘awful’, and yet still managed to blame the fans for going on a ‘witch hunt‘.

Amidst all this are the usual arguments about him keeping us up in his first season despite selling Nicolas Anelka (we’d finished 7th a year earlier), keeping us up last season (only because there were so many blody awful teams below us) and picking up four points from the last two games (against the mighty Portsmouth and Stoke). There was a good example of this on 5 Live’s 606 phone-in, according to this discussion on Burnden Aces.

The worst offender was this ridiculously over-simplisitic view given by a non-Bolton fan in the Mirror a couple of weeks ago (rightly taken to task by Vital Bolton Wanderers), which was completely undermined by the author making reference to Megson as ‘the man you once hailed as Ginger Mourinho’ (memo to outsiders: the whole Ginger Mourinho thing was never affectionate, it was always a piss-take).

The implication in all these articles is that Bolton Wanderers and its fans should not have any ambition. We should be happy to be swimming along with our heads just above the water, because that’s exactly where we deserve to be.

Well, ask yourself this, how do you think Bolton Wanderers got in to the Premier League and then Europe in the first place? Was it by having a manager who just threw his hands up and said, ‘oh well, we’re only little old Bolton, we’ve got no chance of surviving in the Premier League so why even bother trying’? No, it was by having a manger who believed that simply plodding along and accepting your place isn’t good enough.

The only way Bolton managed to eascape an existence that involved regular trips to Scunthorpe and Torquay and playing our home games at a ground with a supermarket at one end, was by believing that we deserved better; that bog standard was not good enough.

Has Gary Megson done a terrible job? No, but simply ‘not doing a terrible job’ is not good enough. I want a manager who does an outstanding job. It’s by demanding such high standards that we got where we are in the first place.

If you accept the inevitability if mediocrity, then mediocrity is all you will get.

Your views welcome in the comments below…

All the goals from Bolton’s 3-2 win at Pompey yesterday…

Your views on the game in the comment box below…

Manny Road gets ready for battle (Pic: Gidzy, some rights reserved)

The media are looking for a victim and the Bolton Wanderers boss might not get such an easy ride this season

Disclaimer: Before we get started, it’s worth pointing out that in preparation for writing this post Manny Road has kitted up in full body armour in anticipation of the backlash likely to come my way. Manny Road is well aware that it’s a marathon not a sprint, that it was only one game, and that but for the legs of Marton Fulop we might well have got a point against Sunderland on Saturday.

So what’s my point? Why is Manny Road stoking the fires of negativity after just one game?

The answer is that I’m not. I’m merely pointing out that others in the media are starting to sound a little less sympathetic towards Gary Megson, who I believe got a pretty easy ride in the press last season.

Here’s a rough sketch of the timeline of attitudes towards Megson during his time at Bolton Wanderers…

Phase 1: Bolton fans outraged by Megson’s appointment, the media – shocked that someone with his track record has been given another chance – are largely in agreement.
Phase 2: Megson keeps Bolton up, fans are still largely unsure but the media – probably just relieved that the lack of anything interesting happening at the Reebok means they don’t have to write about Bolton much anymore – think he’s done a great job.
Phase 3: Megson continues to keep Bolton on an even keel, the media still think he’s doing a great job and slag fans off for not supporting him.

But some of the reports over the weekend suggest we may now be entering a new phase, one in which the fans continue to be disillusioned with Megson (if you think it’s just me, see if you can find any optimism or positivity in reaction to Saturday’s result over on the BWFC Facebook page) and the media start to see our (well, some of us) point again.

Exhibit A: The Bolton News finally get round to pointing out how, despite slashing prices, the club can barely give season tickets away.

Exhibit B: Following on from Daniel Taylor’s pre-season mauling of Megson, The Guardian continues to stick the boot in in their Sunderland match report, saying Bolton were devoid of tactics, ‘insipid, pedestrian and uninspiring’, and that none of Megson’s summer signings made any kind of impact.

Megson got any easy ride from the media last season. There were enough managerial-merry-go-round type stories elsewhere (Newcastle, Tottenham, Portsmouth) to prevent the media from smelling blood at the Reebok. That meant that when the fans got on Megson’s back, it inspired sympathy for the Wanderers boss among the press rather than any kind of killer instinct.

But this season, with the usual candidates for implosion – Spurs, West Ham, Man City – all looking fairly well set, the press may need to seek its prey elsewhere. Newbies are the usual target, but Roberto Martinez (playing the kind of football Bolton fans can only dream of right now) got off to a flier with Wigan at Aston Villa, and most of the other teams of Bolton’s stature – Stoke, Hull, Wolves et al -are all still content enough in the ‘grateful just to be here’ stage of their Premier League lives to get rid of the managers that got them there just yet.

So far Phil Gartside has been able to stave off calls for Gary Megson’s head, but once the fans, media and bank manager (once he counts up those season ticket receipts) are in unison, the only thing that will save Megson is an above average run of results/league position over the next couple of months – and on Saturday’s evidence, it’s difficult to see how this season is going to be any different from last year’s stop-start campaign.

OK, Manny Road is braced… unleash your fury in the comments below…

Watch ‘highlights’ of Bolton Wanderers 0-1 Sunderland here

Image via Wikipedia

How the national press reported Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Aston Villa

It seems like we’ve been hearing this for weeks now, but yet again we’re told by the Mail that Bolton are just one win away from definite safety. The same paper also tells us that Gary Megson believes Bolton have “hearts as big as buckets all over the pitch.”

Big hearts maybe (although that wasn’t necessarily the case at Portsmouth last week), but the Guardian thought the Wanderers display lacked inspiration, saying that “the highlights of this encounter will not make it into any PowerPoint presentations put together for Bolton chairman Phil Gartside’s proposed two-tier top-flight that would include Celtic, Rangers and, of course, Wanderers.”

Clearly avoiding relegation from this version of the Premier League, or any other, is the only measure of Bolton Wanderers’ success as far as the Times is concerned. Their reporter, without any sense of irony, suggests that the fact no-one is talking about Bolton as serious relegation contenders is a “huge compliment to Megson”.

In recognition of the fact that there’s clearly nothing else worth talking about with Bolton (has he seen us play?), the Times dedicated almost their entire report to unpicking the collapse of Aston Villa’s Champions League aspirations instead.

Of course the Times could have questionned Megson’s wisdom for spending so much money on Johan Elmander, but instead – as usual – it was left to the fans in the Observer to make that point. As the Express points out, it’s now just five goals in 26 starts for Elmander.

The Times could also have noted Bolton’s failure to win any of their last three games, or their inability to string passes together, as the Telegraph did.

The Times weren’t alone, though. The News of the World seem to think Megson keeping Bolton up is a miracle (seriously, have you seen how bad West Brom, Middlesbrough, Newcastle, Sunderland etc etc are?).

Disagree? Have your say on the game in the comment box below…

Read the fans’ view of the game here

Watch Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Aston Villa video highlights here

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• Portsmouth 1-0 Bolton Wanderers: What the papers say (mannyroad.com)

How the national newspapers reported the Wanderers’ 1-0 defeat at Fratton Park

The Express said that Bolton weren’t even trying to win the game and were seemingly content with a dull, goalless deadlock.

The contrast with the fighting spirit shown at Chelsea seven days earlier was also pointed out by the Guardian, who described the Whites as “uninspired”. The Telegraph, meanwhile, said we “lacked ambition and failed to ignite.”

So much so that the Daily Mail reckon we’re still in some danger of relegation, not that you would know from the urgency in our performance at Fratton Park. The News of the World described Pompey’s dominance as a “sustained assault.”

That the home side thoroughly deserved all three points was “undisputable”, in the view of the Mirror.

In the Independent, the blame for Bolton’s negative approach was laid entirely on Gary Megson for the way he set up his side with 0-0 in mind.

Only Jussi Jaaskelainen could come away from the game with any credit for the Wanderers, according to the Times. Matchwinner Kanu took most of the plaudits for Portsmouth, although some Wanderers fans might take issue with the Guardian’s assertion that he is Nigeria’s greatest ever player (Jay-Jay Okocha, anyone?).

What did you think of the game? Have your say in the comment box below…

Read the fans’ view on the game here

Watch Portsmouth 1-0 Bolton Wanderers video highlights here

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Image via Wikipedia

The Bolton Wanderers match report you won’t read in the papers (or see on Match of the Day)

Here’s what the various Bolton Wanderers message boards made of the 1-0 defeat to Portsmouth…

Positives
“Jussi Jaaskelainen was our man of the match.”

And that’s about it for this section of the report, nothing else to see here…

Negatives
“Pompey were rubbish but we were even worse… no tactics, no subs, no skills” … “and the defence were incredibly sloppy” … “Pompey should have scored way more than they did” … “On today’s evidence we really are a very poor team.”

“Only using one substitute is a disgrace… do we have to pay them more if the come on or something?”

“And why did Gary Megson not replace Johan Elmander with Kevin Davies up front after what happened at Chelsea last week?”

“We only had one shot on goal, the midfield had no idea and no-one wanted to take responsibility.”

“Gavin McCann appears to have some kind of disease. Symptoms include inability to recognise white shirts, inability to move in a forward direction and inability to think creatively.”

“If that’s the way the players reward the fans for paying £35 for a ticket and making a six hour journey to get there then it’s an absolute disgrace” … “They looked like they already had half a mind on the beach.”

“Looking at our run-in there’s not much to get excited about for the rest of the season… but we’ll stay up because there are so many poor teams in the league.”

“Let’s just hope Ricardo Gardner’s injury isn’t too bad.”

Sources: Burnden Aces, Bolton Banter, Rivals, BBC 606, The Bolton News, The Wanderer.

What did you think of the game? Have your say in the comment box below…

Watch Portsmouth 1-0 Bolton Wanderers video highlights here

Here are the highlights of Portsmouth 1-0 Bolton, not that there appear to have been that many highlights from a Bolton Wanderers point of view…

Have your say on the game in the comment box below…

Your guide to all the predictions and Mystic Meggery ahead of Portsmouth v Bolton Wanderers

Reasons to be cheerful
1. Danny Shittu is a major doubt after being floored by Didier Drogba last week.

2. Matt Taylor, who has scored 10 goals so far this season, would love to show Pompey fans what they’ve been missing since they sold him – even if Gary Megson won’t let him be captain for the day.

3. Portsmouth seem to think that we’re a bigger threat than AC Milan.

4. Pompey could only manage a 2-2 draw at home to West Brom last week, whilst the Wanderers found a new resiliance by fighting back at 4-0 down against Chelsea.

Reasons to be fearful
5. If Shittu does recover in time, he may be a little awestruck by his hero Sol Campbell – which won’t help us improve on a dismal recent defensive record, including conceding nine goals in the last four games.

6. Chris Basham, who transformed the game when he came on at Stamford Bridge last week, will have to settle for a place on the bench, whilst Johan Elmander – who’s still struggling to live up to his price tag – will start again up front – although Kevin Davies doesn’t think that’s a problem.

7. Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last four games and a win would probably guarantee their Premier League safety.

8. Bolton, on the other hand, have very little to play for now – despite Gary Megson’s best attempts to convince us that relegation is still a possibility. Meanwhile, Gary Cahill has poo-pooed any hope of getting in to Europe.

9. Glen Johnson and alleged Bolton target Sean Davis are both available for selection again.

Reasons to be completely bored by pointless stats
10. A draw today would be Bolton’s 100th in the Premier League – although we’ve drawn fewer games than any other Premier League club this season.

11. Portsmouth’s town hall, pictured above, is identical to Bolton’s – I realise this has absolutely no bearing on the match but it just seemed like a good excuse to use the picture.

What are your predictions for Portsmouth v Bolton? Have your say in the comment box below…

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In the words of Tony Gubba, “Portsmouth have been flattened in less than three minutes here”. Early goals from Matt Taylor and Ricardo Gardner put Bolton in the driving seat and they held on despite Peter Crouch pulling one back for Portsmouth. Let’s hope for something similar today…

What are your predictions for Bolton’s trip to Portsmouth? Have your say in the comment box below…

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