Would you buy a second hand car off these boys?

Aspirations have changed at Bolton since the dark days of Gary Megson. The arrival of Owen Coyle followed by our impressive start to the season had the more optimistic of us counting air miles and dusting off our Bulgarian phrase-books. Even when European qualification had passed us by – embarrassingly so in the cup – a top half finish was still on the cards right up to the end of the season.

Never mind. Coyle’s inherited Megson’s bunch of cloggers. Once he’s had the summer to make serious changes, we’ll be back to chasing Europe again. Surely relegation battles are a thing of the past? Aren’t they?

Maybe not. Our form after Christmas was relegation-standard, and the end of the season – five defeats on the bounce – was abysmal. It wouldn’t be the first time poor form at the end of one season has carried over to the next. Add to that our tough start to the season and it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see us rock-bottom after the first seven games. We’ll have easier runs to follow, but everything looks that bit tougher if you’re sat at the bottom and confidence may have taken a bit of a battering.

So how relevant is end-of-season form to performance in next campaign? Let’s hope the answer is ‘not very’. Only two previous premier league teams have ever lost their last five matches: Sunderland in 2003 and Derby in 2008. Both teams finished bottom and were relegated. Sunderland set a record low points tally of nineteen. Derby set a new one with eleven. We are therefore proud holders of another record – the only premier league side to have lost their last five games without being relegated.

So are we realistic relegation candidates, and if so who else is? Maybe recent history can give us some pointers.

Teams relegated from the premier league over the last ten years generally fit into one or more of the following categories:

1. Newly promoted

The omens aren't good, Neil

The most obvious category. Thirteen of the last thirty relegated sides were newly promoted, and not since the class of 2001 – Bolton, Blackburn, and Fulham, who are all still there – have all three promoted sides stayed up. Looking on the bright side, it’s 1998 since all three promoted teams were relegated (Bolton, Barnsley, and Crystal Palace), so maybe at least one will survive?

Candidates: QPR, Norwich, Swansea

2. Narrowly avoided relegation
Five of the last ten years’ relegated sides – including each of the last two years – finished in 17th place the previous year, so history suggests there’s a 50:50 chance Wolves will be in the mix next season.
For the record those relegated sides were Derby, Sunderland, West Brom, Hull and West Ham, and those that have survived were Fulham, Wigan, Portsmouth, Everton, and Bolton.

Although no team finishing 16th has been relegated the next year, the closeness of this year’s relegation scrap suggests that the other last day survivors, Wigan and Blackburn, could also be in the mix.
Candidates: Wolves.
Possible: Wigan, Blackburn

3. Second season
Five of the 30 slots have gone to teams ‘enjoying’ their second season in the top flight. In the case of West Brom and Hull, they had also narrowly avoided relegation the previous season, but the other three – Ipswich, Reading, and Birmingham – had finished in the top half.

Newcastle and West Brom are the two clubs facing their second season. West Brom have steadied the ship under Roy Hodgson and will be targeting mid-table at least. Of the two, Newcastle would be the more likely candidates for me, but only because of indications of internal problems and my belief that Pardew is a poor manager, although they should have the finances to build a decent side after the sale of Andy Carroll.

Candidates: Newcastle and West Brom.

4. Finished the previous season badly
Accounts for six of the thirty relegation slots in the last ten years. Two of these were teams that had also narrowly avoided relegation, but the other four all finished comfortably mid-table, albeit in poor form, reminiscent of this year’s Bolton.

Leicester finished the 2000/01 season with nine defeats in their last ten and dropping from 4th to 13th in the process. They carried this form into the new season, getting thumped by newly promoted Bolton in their first game of the new campaign, losing seven of their first ten games, and being rooted to the foot of the table for most of the season.

Southampton finished 12th in 2004 but with only two points from their last five games. Again, this carried over to the new campaign, with them winning only one of their first twelve and ultimately finishing bottom.

Charlton finished the 2005/06 season in 12th place despite four defeats in their last five then started the next season with seven defeats and only one win in their first ten games, ultimately finishing 19th.

Birmingham’s impressive 2009/10 season saw them defy expectations and claim a top ten place, but also saw them win only one of their last ten games. Whilst the following year started with a four-game unbeaten run, they only managed one win in the first eight, and ultimately a poor end to a topsy-turvy season saw them relegated on the last day.

In four of the last ten seasons, one of the relegated teams have had the worst form of any surviving team in the last five games of the previous campaign. Obviously this also means that the other six teams that finished bottom of the form guide survived, including Everton in 2004 and Man City in 2007 who went on to enjoy top half finishes the following year.

Remember, though, that losing your last five games is unprecedented for any surviving club, so Bolton are in uncharted territory. We managed less than a point a game since Christmas (only Blackpool and West Ham had worse records) and with our diabolical away record, a tricky start at newly promoted QPR (reminiscent of Leicester in 2002) closely followed by games against five of last season’s top six and things could look bleak by mid-October.

Last season’s only other premier league ‘survivor’ with less than a point per game in their last five was Arsenal, who are clearly in no danger of relegation.

Candidates: Bolton

5. Other factors
This category covers other potential ‘warning signs’: financial troubles, loss of a long-term manager, change of ownership, daft managerial sackings and disastrous appointments.

Many of the teams already mentioned also fit into this category. Leicester had recently lost Martin O’Neill. Charlton had lost Curbishley and followed up with three managers the following year. Southampton lost Strachan and appointed Sturrock (briefly) then Wigley (laughably), and so on.

Only six of our thirty relegated teams do not fit into at least one of the categories above. Two of these – Leeds in 2004 and Portsmouth in 2010 – were victims of financial meltdown, as the consequences of overspending took them from European qualification to relegation in short time.

Another – Newcastle – had recently changed ownership, and were going through their Laurel and Hardy phase as new owner Mike Ashley was demonstrating why he should never have been allowed anywhere near a professional football club. There were already murmurings of discontent before Keegan walked out at the start of their relegation season.

Barring sudden loss of interest from the Arabs / Russians / Americans, there are a couple of potential candidates from this category.

Blackburn’s recent change of ownership coupled with the appointment of an inexperienced manager probably put them at the top of the list.

Bet you daren't appoint ... him!

Mike Ashley still should be allowed nowhere near a football club, and Newcastle’s sacking of Hughton and appointment of Pardew seems a bit of an odd one. Again there are murmurings from within the club, and the sale of your captain and main goal threat to a championship club doesn’t bode well, so let’s add them too.

Aston Villa’s appointment of McLeish is the most head-scratchingly daft for a while, but they have too much money and (currently) too good a squad to be genuine candidates.

Candidates: Blackburn, Newcastle.

That leaves only three clubs out of the last thirty relegated that were relegated without any of the ‘warning signs’ listed above, which suggests that if you’re an established premier league club not mentioned thus far, you’re probably safe..

Summary: put your money on …
It’s difficult to look beyond the three promoted sides, and likely that at least a couple will be in the mix. Other prime candidates for me would be; Blackburn due to their potential for off-field turmoil with the new owners and because they narrowly avoided relegation this year, Newcastle due to Mike Ashley, Alan Pardew, and second season syndrome, Wolves simply because the worst placed survivor tends to have an even chance of going down, and finally Bolton due to our poor form at the end of last season and our difficult schedule at the start of this one, but mainly so I don’t jinx us by saying we’ll be safe.

To narrow it down further, I’d expect Wolves to build on their survival in the last two seasons and Bolton to have too much pedigree, too solid a set-up and too good a manager to be in the mix after Christmas.

So perm any three from Norwich, QPR, Swansea, Newcastle, and Blackburn.

There you go – the three relegated teams will definitely come out of that bunch. Probably.

- Wakey

‘The best years of my career were at the Hawthorns. But I left the club because I was fed up of us going down, going back up and going down again,’ he told the Birmingham Mail.

‘I hope the supporters appreciate my reasons and my contribution for the previous six years, but if I get stick or banter then I’ll take it on the chin.’

If the reaction of Baggies fans when Robinson left is anything to go by, he’ll get a sympathetic reception, but only because they seemed delighted to see him go.  The street parties only ceased when the weather started to get chilly.

Then again, the supporters in that part of the World can be a little strange – they liked Gary Megson.  Not that they’re entirely misguided. The hatred of Wolves can only be applauded.

A trademark challenge on Jussi Jaaskelainen, even though he's on the same side and doesn't have the ball.

Given the above, not much was expected of Robinson, but he’s surprised a few people.  The Angry Dwarf doesn’t have pace, and his tackling is too often reckless, but the commitment can’t be faulted and if a last ditch challenge is needed, then Robbo’s your man.  Going forward, he shows surprising composure on the ball.

An incident in last Sunday’s game against summed him up.  Nani ran from inside his own half.  Zat Knight backed off.  So did Sam Ricketts.  Stuart Holden jogged along sedately behind.  Only Robinson put a tackle in.  Of course he missed by about ten feet and the United man went on to score, but the right intent was there.

Who’s Bolton’s best defender this season? Well according to the Premier League’s official rankings, it’s none other than Paul Robinson.

The Whites have had a problem at left-back for years.  Ricardo Gardner had to be converted from a midfield role to stand in there.  Vincent Candela played for half a season, but chose to return to Italy.  Tal Ben Haim covered now and then, Jlloyd Samuel alternated between sort of ok and terminally gormless, and then there was the scary sight of Henrik Pedersen plying his trade in that position.

Going back in time there was Syd Farrimond and the incomparable Henry Mowbray.  Mowbray kicked anything that moved.  Sometimes he kicked things which didn’t move.  On other occasions things which had moved before he kicked them never did so again.

Paul Robinson won’t be competing with Ashley Cole or Patrice Evra for full back of the year, but after a season and a bit, he’s proved his worth and the belated appreciation he’s getting from sections of the Reebok is well deserved.

Gary's Gardening Efforts Haven't Met With Success...

Former Bolton manager Gary Megson appeared on TV at the weekend.  Despite warnings on this very site, a few Wanderers fans chose to tune in.  Others have foolishly watched various clips of the programme that are lying around on the internet.

This wasn’t necessary.  Everyone knew what he was going to say.  If the Ginger One was to be believed, Bolton were all but challenging for a Champions League place when he was unfairly placed on gardening leave.

Just to balance things up, here are a few snippets from that Wikipedia article, which cast Gaz in a slightly different role than the one as football saviour.

Norwich

‘Megson managed the Canaries for the remainder of the 1995-96 season, but was sacked at the end of the season’

Blackpool

‘Megson left at the end of the season.’

Stockport

‘Soon after he left Stockport by mutual consent.’

Stoke City

‘His tenure at the Britannia Stadium was brought to an end…’

West Brom

‘…on 26 October Megson was dismissed…’

Nottingham Forest

...but his taste in gnomes isn't bad

‘In terms of points they were nearer to the relegation zone than the playoff zone when he resigned in February 2006 after being put under a lot of pressure by the Forest fans.’

Leicester City

‘…he left Leicester on 24 October 2007, just 41 days and nine Football League Championship games after his appointment.’

Bolton Wanderers

‘On Wednesday 30 December 2009, Bolton announced that Megson had been relieved of his duties as manager with immediate effect.’

So there you have it, the managerial equivalent of Michael Ricketts, except that lard-arse was good once.

Now you might say it’s unfair to quote so selectively and that the full story isn’t being told.  You’d be correct.  But Gary Megson can have no complaints.  After all, he started it.

Image via Wikipedia

How the national press reported Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Aston Villa

It seems like we’ve been hearing this for weeks now, but yet again we’re told by the Mail that Bolton are just one win away from definite safety. The same paper also tells us that Gary Megson believes Bolton have “hearts as big as buckets all over the pitch.”

Big hearts maybe (although that wasn’t necessarily the case at Portsmouth last week), but the Guardian thought the Wanderers display lacked inspiration, saying that “the highlights of this encounter will not make it into any PowerPoint presentations put together for Bolton chairman Phil Gartside’s proposed two-tier top-flight that would include Celtic, Rangers and, of course, Wanderers.”

Clearly avoiding relegation from this version of the Premier League, or any other, is the only measure of Bolton Wanderers’ success as far as the Times is concerned. Their reporter, without any sense of irony, suggests that the fact no-one is talking about Bolton as serious relegation contenders is a “huge compliment to Megson”.

In recognition of the fact that there’s clearly nothing else worth talking about with Bolton (has he seen us play?), the Times dedicated almost their entire report to unpicking the collapse of Aston Villa’s Champions League aspirations instead.

Of course the Times could have questionned Megson’s wisdom for spending so much money on Johan Elmander, but instead – as usual – it was left to the fans in the Observer to make that point. As the Express points out, it’s now just five goals in 26 starts for Elmander.

The Times could also have noted Bolton’s failure to win any of their last three games, or their inability to string passes together, as the Telegraph did.

The Times weren’t alone, though. The News of the World seem to think Megson keeping Bolton up is a miracle (seriously, have you seen how bad West Brom, Middlesbrough, Newcastle, Sunderland etc etc are?).

Disagree? Have your say on the game in the comment box below…

Read the fans’ view of the game here

Watch Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Aston Villa video highlights here

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Your guide to all the predictions and Mystic Meggery ahead of Portsmouth v Bolton Wanderers

Reasons to be cheerful
1. Danny Shittu is a major doubt after being floored by Didier Drogba last week.

2. Matt Taylor, who has scored 10 goals so far this season, would love to show Pompey fans what they’ve been missing since they sold him – even if Gary Megson won’t let him be captain for the day.

3. Portsmouth seem to think that we’re a bigger threat than AC Milan.

4. Pompey could only manage a 2-2 draw at home to West Brom last week, whilst the Wanderers found a new resiliance by fighting back at 4-0 down against Chelsea.

Reasons to be fearful
5. If Shittu does recover in time, he may be a little awestruck by his hero Sol Campbell – which won’t help us improve on a dismal recent defensive record, including conceding nine goals in the last four games.

6. Chris Basham, who transformed the game when he came on at Stamford Bridge last week, will have to settle for a place on the bench, whilst Johan Elmander – who’s still struggling to live up to his price tag – will start again up front – although Kevin Davies doesn’t think that’s a problem.

7. Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last four games and a win would probably guarantee their Premier League safety.

8. Bolton, on the other hand, have very little to play for now – despite Gary Megson’s best attempts to convince us that relegation is still a possibility. Meanwhile, Gary Cahill has poo-pooed any hope of getting in to Europe.

9. Glen Johnson and alleged Bolton target Sean Davis are both available for selection again.

Reasons to be completely bored by pointless stats
10. A draw today would be Bolton’s 100th in the Premier League – although we’ve drawn fewer games than any other Premier League club this season.

11. Portsmouth’s town hall, pictured above, is identical to Bolton’s – I realise this has absolutely no bearing on the match but it just seemed like a good excuse to use the picture.

What are your predictions for Portsmouth v Bolton? Have your say in the comment box below…

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• Megson: Stay here AND play for England – England MAD
• English eyes on Brazilian gem (Dionatan Nascimento)
• Bolton Wanderers: Midfield target offered new deal – ClubCall.com (Sean Davis)
• Muamba happy with his display (From The Bolton News)
• Shame on you Mr Cappello
• Taylor Would Swap Goal For Three Points
• Megson happy to widen gap on bottom three (From The Bolton News)
• Bolton Wanderers boss hails England regime – Fansfc
• Where did it all go wrong for Grzegorz Rasiak? | The Saintly Sinner
• What is the benefit of Capello’s 32-man provisional squad? – Mirror.co.uk
• ‘Boorish Bolton Block Baggies’ by Dubhlinn Baggie
• Fabrice Muamba Eager To Impress For Bolton Wanderers
• Matthew Taylor Hopeful Of England Call-Up
• An open letter to Phil Brown from the Online Gooner
• Bolton striker Makukula would welcome Benfica return
• Bolton Wanderers – The Darkest of Days for Bolton

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Image by birdfarm via Flickr

How the national press reported Bolton’s 1-1 draw at the Hawthorns

The Times thought Bolton were worthy of all three points. It says Bolton’s goal had been coming for a long time when it eventually arrived from the boot of Matt Taylor in the 67th minute and also points out that West Brom failed to get a shot on target all game – even their equalising goal needed a massive deflection from Danny Shittu.

But, as the Mirror points out, the Wanderers only had themselves to blame for failing to win after Taylor passed up a golden opportunity late on. The Guardian also suggests that Bolton should have been more positive after taking the lead rather than sitting back and inviting Albion to attack – an invitation which they happily accepted.

The News of the World says that Albion might even have gone on to win the game themselves, although that would have been unfair on the Wanderers.

The Observer saw things slightly differently, pointing out that West Brom dominated possession in the early stages of the game as Bolton struggled to get in to the game.

All the papers report that Gary Megson felt humbled by the positive reception he received from the Baggies fans, although the Express points out that it must have made a nice change for a manager who is “still not universally loved by Bolton fans”, as the Mirror rather delicately puts it.

More importantly, there’s also an admission from Megson in most of the papers that he was out of order for the comments that saw him sent to stand late on (Megson in “I was wrong” admission shocker, anyone?).

For now, though, it’s Tony Mowbray who’s feeling the heat. But seeing the effectiveness of Bolton’s style of play at close quarters wasn’t enough to convince the West Brom manager that his attempt to pass and move his way to Premier League survival is futile. He told the Independent that he wouldn’t compromise, despite the fact that his side were out-muscled for much of the game.

Disagree? Have your say in the comments below…

Watch West Brom 1-1 Bolton Wanderers video highlights here

Read the fans’ view of the game here

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Positives
- “The support from the fans was fantastic and apart from the first and last 10 minutes we dominated the game.”

- “Results went in our favour and that five-point gap to the relegation places is starting to look quite handy,” besides… “It’s possible that we won’t win another game this season but will stay up anyway.”

- “We weren’t out-footballed by a team who supposedly play better football than us” … “they didn’t even manage a single shot on target.”

- “Johan Elmander was our man of the match” … “he put to bed the myth that he doesn’t put in any effort” OR…

Negatives
- “Elmander is useless and worth nowhere near £ 8 million.”

- “If you take away his goal Matty Taylor had an absolute stinker. He should’ve buried that chance at the end.”

- “Sebastien Puygrenier was just as bad as Andy O’Brien. It’s time Danny Shittu got a proper chance.”

- “One point from games against Stoke, Fulham and West Brom is unacceptable.”

- “Once again Megson was afraid to make substitutions… he has to go,” OR … “The only embarrassment to the club are the fans who constantly chant for Megson to be sacked.”

- “With any luck Megson will be banned from the touchline for several games after his sending off.”

Disagree? Have your say in the comments below…

Sources: BBC 606, The Bolton News, Burnden Aces, The Wanderer, Rivals.

Watch West Brom 1-1 Bolton Wanderers video highlights here

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More than two hours before you’ll see them on Match of the Day, here are the goals from the Wanderers’ 1-1 draw with West Brom at the Hawthorns earlier today…

Were you at the game? Tell us your views in the comment box below…

Image via Wikipedia

Your guide to all the predictions and Mystic Meggery ahead of Bolton’s trip to West Brom this afternoon

Reasons to be cheerful
1. Our chances of winning this game are better than 50/50… because under Gary Megson we have only lost 49 per cent of our matches.

2. Megson should get a good reception from the fans… the West Brom fans that is. Tony Mowbray certainly wants him to get a good welcome and Jonathan Greening has been having sleepless nights over it too, but Megson himself is not so optimistic about what the atmosphere will be like.

3. West Brom are six points adrift from safety and have lost their last three home games.

4. The tipsters in the Mirror think we’ll win – and we’ll take that, even if one of their pundits is Graham Poll.

Reasons to be fearful
5. If we play anything like we did against Fulham last weekend then we don’t stand a chance… and if that happens then the welcome Megson gets from the home fans could soon be drowned out by the booing from the Bolton end.

6. And it doesn’t help that Megson has been talking us down all week and looking over his shoulder, rather than looking where he’s going.

7. Abdoulaye Meite has been ruled out through injury, which means they might play someone who can actually defend… which is exactly what appears to have happened when their new defensive partnership stepped in against West Ham on Monday.

8. Tony Mowbray, like every other manager who’s been asked about it this season, isn’t scared of our physical approach.

9. We’ll be without Mark Davies, aka the the only player with any creativity in the centre of our midfield.

10. The referee, Howard Webb, isn’t exactly Kevin Davies’ best mate.

11. We failed to sign James Morrison from the Baggies in the January transfer window, so no doubt he’ll pop up and score the winner.

What do you think? Have your say in the comments below…

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