Would you buy a second hand car off these boys?

Aspirations have changed at Bolton since the dark days of Gary Megson. The arrival of Owen Coyle followed by our impressive start to the season had the more optimistic of us counting air miles and dusting off our Bulgarian phrase-books. Even when European qualification had passed us by – embarrassingly so in the cup – a top half finish was still on the cards right up to the end of the season.

Never mind. Coyle’s inherited Megson’s bunch of cloggers. Once he’s had the summer to make serious changes, we’ll be back to chasing Europe again. Surely relegation battles are a thing of the past? Aren’t they?

Maybe not. Our form after Christmas was relegation-standard, and the end of the season – five defeats on the bounce – was abysmal. It wouldn’t be the first time poor form at the end of one season has carried over to the next. Add to that our tough start to the season and it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see us rock-bottom after the first seven games. We’ll have easier runs to follow, but everything looks that bit tougher if you’re sat at the bottom and confidence may have taken a bit of a battering.

So how relevant is end-of-season form to performance in next campaign? Let’s hope the answer is ‘not very’. Only two previous premier league teams have ever lost their last five matches: Sunderland in 2003 and Derby in 2008. Both teams finished bottom and were relegated. Sunderland set a record low points tally of nineteen. Derby set a new one with eleven. We are therefore proud holders of another record – the only premier league side to have lost their last five games without being relegated.

So are we realistic relegation candidates, and if so who else is? Maybe recent history can give us some pointers.

Teams relegated from the premier league over the last ten years generally fit into one or more of the following categories:

1. Newly promoted

The omens aren't good, Neil

The most obvious category. Thirteen of the last thirty relegated sides were newly promoted, and not since the class of 2001 – Bolton, Blackburn, and Fulham, who are all still there – have all three promoted sides stayed up. Looking on the bright side, it’s 1998 since all three promoted teams were relegated (Bolton, Barnsley, and Crystal Palace), so maybe at least one will survive?

Candidates: QPR, Norwich, Swansea

2. Narrowly avoided relegation
Five of the last ten years’ relegated sides – including each of the last two years – finished in 17th place the previous year, so history suggests there’s a 50:50 chance Wolves will be in the mix next season.
For the record those relegated sides were Derby, Sunderland, West Brom, Hull and West Ham, and those that have survived were Fulham, Wigan, Portsmouth, Everton, and Bolton.

Although no team finishing 16th has been relegated the next year, the closeness of this year’s relegation scrap suggests that the other last day survivors, Wigan and Blackburn, could also be in the mix.
Candidates: Wolves.
Possible: Wigan, Blackburn

3. Second season
Five of the 30 slots have gone to teams ‘enjoying’ their second season in the top flight. In the case of West Brom and Hull, they had also narrowly avoided relegation the previous season, but the other three – Ipswich, Reading, and Birmingham – had finished in the top half.

Newcastle and West Brom are the two clubs facing their second season. West Brom have steadied the ship under Roy Hodgson and will be targeting mid-table at least. Of the two, Newcastle would be the more likely candidates for me, but only because of indications of internal problems and my belief that Pardew is a poor manager, although they should have the finances to build a decent side after the sale of Andy Carroll.

Candidates: Newcastle and West Brom.

4. Finished the previous season badly
Accounts for six of the thirty relegation slots in the last ten years. Two of these were teams that had also narrowly avoided relegation, but the other four all finished comfortably mid-table, albeit in poor form, reminiscent of this year’s Bolton.

Leicester finished the 2000/01 season with nine defeats in their last ten and dropping from 4th to 13th in the process. They carried this form into the new season, getting thumped by newly promoted Bolton in their first game of the new campaign, losing seven of their first ten games, and being rooted to the foot of the table for most of the season.

Southampton finished 12th in 2004 but with only two points from their last five games. Again, this carried over to the new campaign, with them winning only one of their first twelve and ultimately finishing bottom.

Charlton finished the 2005/06 season in 12th place despite four defeats in their last five then started the next season with seven defeats and only one win in their first ten games, ultimately finishing 19th.

Birmingham’s impressive 2009/10 season saw them defy expectations and claim a top ten place, but also saw them win only one of their last ten games. Whilst the following year started with a four-game unbeaten run, they only managed one win in the first eight, and ultimately a poor end to a topsy-turvy season saw them relegated on the last day.

In four of the last ten seasons, one of the relegated teams have had the worst form of any surviving team in the last five games of the previous campaign. Obviously this also means that the other six teams that finished bottom of the form guide survived, including Everton in 2004 and Man City in 2007 who went on to enjoy top half finishes the following year.

Remember, though, that losing your last five games is unprecedented for any surviving club, so Bolton are in uncharted territory. We managed less than a point a game since Christmas (only Blackpool and West Ham had worse records) and with our diabolical away record, a tricky start at newly promoted QPR (reminiscent of Leicester in 2002) closely followed by games against five of last season’s top six and things could look bleak by mid-October.

Last season’s only other premier league ‘survivor’ with less than a point per game in their last five was Arsenal, who are clearly in no danger of relegation.

Candidates: Bolton

5. Other factors
This category covers other potential ‘warning signs’: financial troubles, loss of a long-term manager, change of ownership, daft managerial sackings and disastrous appointments.

Many of the teams already mentioned also fit into this category. Leicester had recently lost Martin O’Neill. Charlton had lost Curbishley and followed up with three managers the following year. Southampton lost Strachan and appointed Sturrock (briefly) then Wigley (laughably), and so on.

Only six of our thirty relegated teams do not fit into at least one of the categories above. Two of these – Leeds in 2004 and Portsmouth in 2010 – were victims of financial meltdown, as the consequences of overspending took them from European qualification to relegation in short time.

Another – Newcastle – had recently changed ownership, and were going through their Laurel and Hardy phase as new owner Mike Ashley was demonstrating why he should never have been allowed anywhere near a professional football club. There were already murmurings of discontent before Keegan walked out at the start of their relegation season.

Barring sudden loss of interest from the Arabs / Russians / Americans, there are a couple of potential candidates from this category.

Blackburn’s recent change of ownership coupled with the appointment of an inexperienced manager probably put them at the top of the list.

Bet you daren't appoint ... him!

Mike Ashley still should be allowed nowhere near a football club, and Newcastle’s sacking of Hughton and appointment of Pardew seems a bit of an odd one. Again there are murmurings from within the club, and the sale of your captain and main goal threat to a championship club doesn’t bode well, so let’s add them too.

Aston Villa’s appointment of McLeish is the most head-scratchingly daft for a while, but they have too much money and (currently) too good a squad to be genuine candidates.

Candidates: Blackburn, Newcastle.

That leaves only three clubs out of the last thirty relegated that were relegated without any of the ‘warning signs’ listed above, which suggests that if you’re an established premier league club not mentioned thus far, you’re probably safe..

Summary: put your money on …
It’s difficult to look beyond the three promoted sides, and likely that at least a couple will be in the mix. Other prime candidates for me would be; Blackburn due to their potential for off-field turmoil with the new owners and because they narrowly avoided relegation this year, Newcastle due to Mike Ashley, Alan Pardew, and second season syndrome, Wolves simply because the worst placed survivor tends to have an even chance of going down, and finally Bolton due to our poor form at the end of last season and our difficult schedule at the start of this one, but mainly so I don’t jinx us by saying we’ll be safe.

To narrow it down further, I’d expect Wolves to build on their survival in the last two seasons and Bolton to have too much pedigree, too solid a set-up and too good a manager to be in the mix after Christmas.

So perm any three from Norwich, QPR, Swansea, Newcastle, and Blackburn.

There you go – the three relegated teams will definitely come out of that bunch. Probably.

- Wakey

In 2005, the Whites played a Carling Cup fixture following a 4-0 thumping of Everton at Goodison Park.  Much was expected, but Sam Allardyce’s side went down 2-0 after woeful defending.

There were better times the following season, with a 3-1 league win, courtesy of a brace from Andranik, or Teymourian the Iranian as Tony Gubba less than snappily dubbed him.  Ando never fulfilled the promise shown that day and is now back in Iran.

The low point came in 2008, under a certain Ginger gentleman.  Gary Megson had left most of the first team squad in the departure lounge at Manchester Airport a few days previously as he took a collection consisting of reserves, apprentices and a couple of passing electricians to Sporting Lisbon for a UEFA cup tie.  Defeat resulted.

The plan was to leave first choice players fresh for the relegation battle, but it backfired horribly.  Bolton performed abysmally and were beaten by a Wigan side who played with ten men for 85 minutes after Jason Koumas was sent off.

Wigan fans greet the players as they arrive at the JJ...er DW Stadium

‘That’s why you’re you’re going down,’ chanted the toothless, hunchbacked hordes, otherwise known as the home support.  A diet consisting solely of meat pies, dripping and Uncle Joe’s mintballs has a lot to answer for.

Even though Premier League status was preserved at the end of the campaign, many never forgave Megson, especially those who had shelled out to go to Portugal.

The mood at the Reebok is a good deal better now, with both players and fans enthused by the appointment of Owen Coyle.   The Wanderers boss was even generous enough to lend Ali Al-Habsi to the little club up the road, and he has been Wigan’s best performer.  Gladly, the big Omani is ineligible for the coming fixture, leaving the ham-fisted and frequently injured Chris Kirkland to deputise.

This is a difficult game to judge.  Roberto Martinez’s team play neat football at times, but they’re horribly inconsistent and defensively suspect.  The pitch may play a role too, but that’s what you get when its primary use is for Rugby League.  If the points are shared, there won’t be complaints from either side.

- Richard McCormick

a)    Always injured
b)    Crap

Yes, Chris Kirkland, that’s you we’re talking about.

However, there have been a couple of snags.  After being roundly thrashed by Blackpool and Chelsea, Roberto Martinez’s side were expected to go the same way at Spurs.  Instead they scored an unlikely victory and the big Omani stopper performed heroically to keep a clean sheet for the second time in five days.

Wigan.  Clean sheet.  Same paragraph.  Doesn’t compute does it?

Agent Al-Habsi appears to have misunderstood his instructions.  He was supposed to keep the result respectable, not stop the other lot scoring altogether.

Secondly, events at the Reebok on Sunday, have got some fans in a panic, frantically calling for Bolton’s reserve ‘keeper to be recalled.  Jussi Jaaskelainen will receive a three match ban for violent conduct after giving Roger Johnson what John McGinlay might have described as a ‘wee push’, albeit in a somewhat girly fashion.

Owen Coyle doesn’t agree and has already pledged his faith in Adam Bogdan.

‘I have belief in the lad, that is why we were able to let Ali Al-Habsi out on loan because I knew Adam was competent and ready to go in goal and he showed his qualities in this match,’  he said after Bogdan’s debut at Southampton.  It’s a view that was re-iterated in his Birmingham post-match interview.

Bogdan faces a tough time.  His first league start will be at Arsenal, followed by a visit to Aston Villa, where Bolton have conceded thirteen times in three matches.  Then there’s  a trip to Burnley, which may well be a feisty affair, with the town still mired in bitterness after Owen Coyle’s perceived treachery.  The young Hungarian has the ability to cope, provided nerves don’t kick in.

This is how to slap someone around on a football field

The problem will arise if something happens to Bogdan.  His understudy for those three games will be Rob Lainton, who is well regarded amongst the backroom staff, but completely untested at first team level.

In that eventuality the only option will be to recall Al-Habsi, which can’t happen if his move becomes permanent.  Jaaskelainen’s reaction on Sunday was viewed as a rush of blood to the gloves, but it may well have cost Bolton a sum in the region of £3 million.

So is this.[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvubZ9xGUxw[/youtube]

It’s hard not to be amused by the situation at Wigan Athletic.   Getting pasted by Chelsea is a fate that’s befallen quite a few teams recently, but being on the wrong end of a 4-0 drubbing at home to Blackpool can only be classed as utter humiliation.  The Latics aren’t particularly significant, but the thought of their relegation has appeal.  It’ll be like getting rid of a tramp who’s been sleeping on the doorstep.

Now there’s another reason for Whites fans to look at the Premier League’s least fashionable club.  Bolton reserve goalkeeper Ali Al-Habsi is currently on loan at the Dave Whelan stadium, and rumour has it that Roberto Martinez wants to make the arrangement a permanent one.

'Why are sending me to Wigan? Why?..........

Al-Habsi has had the misfortune of being around at the same time as Jussi Jaaskelainen, one of the top flight’s most consistent performers.   The big Omani hasn’t let anyone down when called upon.  He gave a fine display at Bayern Munich in the UEFA cup and performed heroically at the end of the 2007-8 season, when Jaaskelainen was injured.

So getting rid would be folly, right?  Well, not necessarily.  Bolton have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to goal keepers and Adam Bogdan, who made his debut in the League Cup tie at Southampton may prove to be the best of them.

‘I have belief in the lad, that is why we were able to let Ali Al-Habsi out on loan because I knew Adam was competent and ready to go in goal and he showed his qualities in this match.’, said Owen Coyle in an interview after the game.

Regular reserve team watchers already know how good Bogdan is.  The Hungary under-21 international arrived in 2007 and it was clear even then that he was a cut above.  He’s big, a great all rounder and commands his area well.  Since then he’s had the benefit of Fred Barber’s coaching, and is now ready to make the step up.

It will be sad to see Al-Habsi go, but he deserves his chance at the top level, and he’s certainly an improvement on Kamikaze Kirkland, Wigan’s current incumbent.   The current bid, thought to be £1.5 million must be rejected, but if the pie-eaters get realistic with their valuation then Owen Coyle should do the deal.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9p3OzwQs0k

Many thanks to David for taking the time to speak to us.

Manny Road gets ready for battle (Pic: Gidzy, some rights reserved)

The media are looking for a victim and the Bolton Wanderers boss might not get such an easy ride this season

Disclaimer: Before we get started, it’s worth pointing out that in preparation for writing this post Manny Road has kitted up in full body armour in anticipation of the backlash likely to come my way. Manny Road is well aware that it’s a marathon not a sprint, that it was only one game, and that but for the legs of Marton Fulop we might well have got a point against Sunderland on Saturday.

So what’s my point? Why is Manny Road stoking the fires of negativity after just one game?

The answer is that I’m not. I’m merely pointing out that others in the media are starting to sound a little less sympathetic towards Gary Megson, who I believe got a pretty easy ride in the press last season.

Here’s a rough sketch of the timeline of attitudes towards Megson during his time at Bolton Wanderers…

Phase 1: Bolton fans outraged by Megson’s appointment, the media – shocked that someone with his track record has been given another chance – are largely in agreement.
Phase 2: Megson keeps Bolton up, fans are still largely unsure but the media – probably just relieved that the lack of anything interesting happening at the Reebok means they don’t have to write about Bolton much anymore – think he’s done a great job.
Phase 3: Megson continues to keep Bolton on an even keel, the media still think he’s doing a great job and slag fans off for not supporting him.

But some of the reports over the weekend suggest we may now be entering a new phase, one in which the fans continue to be disillusioned with Megson (if you think it’s just me, see if you can find any optimism or positivity in reaction to Saturday’s result over on the BWFC Facebook page) and the media start to see our (well, some of us) point again.

Exhibit A: The Bolton News finally get round to pointing out how, despite slashing prices, the club can barely give season tickets away.

Exhibit B: Following on from Daniel Taylor’s pre-season mauling of Megson, The Guardian continues to stick the boot in in their Sunderland match report, saying Bolton were devoid of tactics, ‘insipid, pedestrian and uninspiring’, and that none of Megson’s summer signings made any kind of impact.

Megson got any easy ride from the media last season. There were enough managerial-merry-go-round type stories elsewhere (Newcastle, Tottenham, Portsmouth) to prevent the media from smelling blood at the Reebok. That meant that when the fans got on Megson’s back, it inspired sympathy for the Wanderers boss among the press rather than any kind of killer instinct.

But this season, with the usual candidates for implosion – Spurs, West Ham, Man City – all looking fairly well set, the press may need to seek its prey elsewhere. Newbies are the usual target, but Roberto Martinez (playing the kind of football Bolton fans can only dream of right now) got off to a flier with Wigan at Aston Villa, and most of the other teams of Bolton’s stature – Stoke, Hull, Wolves et al -are all still content enough in the ‘grateful just to be here’ stage of their Premier League lives to get rid of the managers that got them there just yet.

So far Phil Gartside has been able to stave off calls for Gary Megson’s head, but once the fans, media and bank manager (once he counts up those season ticket receipts) are in unison, the only thing that will save Megson is an above average run of results/league position over the next couple of months – and on Saturday’s evidence, it’s difficult to see how this season is going to be any different from last year’s stop-start campaign.

OK, Manny Road is braced… unleash your fury in the comments below…

Watch ‘highlights’ of Bolton Wanderers 0-1 Sunderland here

It's like looking in a mirror (Pic: Terry Wha, some rights reserved)

By ‘eck, The Guardian thinks we all wear flat caps and work down mines…

Regular readers from last season will know Manny Road is not a huge fan of match previews. I attempted to hijack the ridiculous notion that stats and facts based on past events have any bearing on upcoming matches with the regular ‘… things you didn’t need to know about Bolton Wanderers v Team X‘ series.

Manny Road won’t be doing that this season, partly because I think I made my point, but mainly because I’ve got better things to do on a Saturday morning (like sleeping off hangovers, for example) than trawling through endless, tedious football fan sites reading anodyne facts about how many times Kevin Davies has used his enormous backside to win a free-kick.You can read this nonsense for yourselves over at NewsNow.

Besides, it’s a little dispiriting when you make the effort and all you get back is abuse from Wigan fans who have clearly had a sense of humour bypass.

Nevertheless, I did think it was worth bringing the thoughts of The Guardian to your attention, given that they made such a hash of their predictions last year.

Firstly, I should give credit where it’s due and say that The Guardian’s Daniel Taylor was the only football writer I could find who had the balls to step away from the comfort zone of the ‘Megson has done a good job with the resources on offer’ party line that seems to have been agreed by most pundits. Taylor even touched on some of the ideas Manny Road has been banging on about for months:

Megson, it must be said, is not a man to inspire a sense of great excitement, chewing his gum, looking angry, with a reputation for ostracising any players he thinks have crossed him. He has none of the stardust or charisma that some fans seem to think is essential. He does not inspire an element of fantasy.

It’s just a shame that the same paper had this to say in a separate preview:

If they had three wishes

1 Sam Allardyce

2 Return of the Charleston – they won the FA Cup three times in the 20s

3 To play Arsenal under rugby league rules

What a typical fan says

“It’s a man’s game so shut it, Wenger.”

And if you think that’s patronising, they went on…

If they want to get ahead they could wear an … Ecky-Thump cap

Outmoded Lancashire establishment, a triumph of substance over style that repels allcomers, especially fancy dans, with surprisingly effective improvised weapon. Baffling to southerners it remains unsurprisingly efficient in rough conditions. Constantly tipped for imminent extinction it soldiers on oblivious to all progressive trends. Liable to provoke pain in the neck.

Perhaps next year’s preview will read:

What a typical fan says

“The Guardian? I wouldn’t wipe my arse with it.”

In the spirit of hypocricsy and two-facedness that is, of course, the hallmark of any self-respecting journalist, Manny Road did agree to write a pre-season preview for ESPN, although they don’t appear to have published it yet. Perhaps my response to the question ‘Which three teams do you think will get relegated this season?’ (Manny Road’s answer: ‘In an ideal world, Manchester United, Manchester United Reserves and the Manchester United Youth Team’) wasn’t quite anodyne enough.

I’m taking it as a compliment, but will be sure to alert you all to it either here, or on Manny Road’s Twitter feed, should ESPN decide to re-write my nonsense and turn me in to a proper pundit, hackneyed cliches and all.

UPDATE: Just got an email from ESPN saying they have used my interview. You can read my ramblings here.

If you’d like to offer any predictions for the coming season, slag Manny Road off for being a miserable git (as is rapidly becoming the norm)  or disprove the theory that the sense of humour gene never made it to Wigan, feel free to leave your views below…

How the national press reported the Wanderers goalless draw at the JJB Stadium

The News of the World gives top billing to Jussi Jaaskelainen, suggesting Wigan would have won at a canter but for the Bolton keeper’s heroics. The Guardian described Jaaskelainen as “immense”. The Mail is similarly complimentary, although it does point out that he almost got punished for a howler early in the game.

In contrast to most other papers, the Times thought it was a boring game, even going as far as suggesting that the fans might have enjoyed it more if their teams were more deeply involved in the relegation battle. The Times was also the only paper to point out that the Bolton fans’ present to Gary Megson on his 50th birthday was abuse (anybody else hear this?).

The reporter from the Independent enjoyed the game rather more:

Despite the score, there were the odd outbreaks of excitement, too, particularly in the first half when Wigan were kept at bay only by the agility of Jussi Jaaskelainen. Hugo Rodallega hit a post and Bolton’s Gary Cahill had a shot deflected on to the bar, so it was not quite the arid wasteland implied by Gary Lineker on Match of the Day.

In seeming apparent ignorance of the rivalry between the two club’s sets of fans, the Telegraph rather patronisingly suggests Wigan and Bolton are like two peas from a pod (what because we’re both small northern towns?). The same report then rather bizarrely feels need to comment on the game between Barcelona and Real Madrid on the same day, which can only lead us to conclude that the reporter’s heart wasn’t really in his duties at the JJB.

Also struggling to take in the action on the pitch was the Express, who also lumped Blackburn in to the “aww aren’t those plucky northerners cute” analogy.

What did you think of the game? Have your say on Wigan Athletic 0-0 Bolton Wanderers in the comment box below…

Related articles by Zemanta

• Honesty is the best policy for Megson – so why not the fans? (mannyroad.com)
• Portsmouth 1-0 Bolton Wanderers: The fans’ view (mannyroad.com)
• Portsmouth 1-0 Bolton Wanderers: What the papers say (mannyroad.com)
• Chelsea 4-3 Bolton Wanderers: What the papers say (mannyroad.com)

The Bolton Wanderers match report you won’t read in the papers (or see on Match of the Day)

What the various Bolton Wanderers message boards made of the goalless draw at Wigan…

Positives
- “We would have won the game but for the terrible decision that ruled Matthew Taylor’s goal out as offside when Mido was playing him on.”

- “The coverage on Match of the Day was a disgrace. It was an exciting game despite the way they portrayed it as a boring 0-0″… “either side could have won it but it was a fair result in the end.”

- “The game was much better than the scoreline and it was great to see Gary Megson experimenting with different formations again… with a couple of signings we can be a real force next season.”

- “Jussi Jaaskelainen was our man of the match.”

- “What the hell was the Shoes Up For The Wanderers chant all about?” (I think it’s what they call having a laugh)… “And it’s good to see Megson praising the fans too.”

Negatives
- “We were too defensive and played with too many men behind the ball.”

- “We’re so boring it’s starting to get embarrassing… we need to sort this out before next season.”

- “If you look at the recent performances of Johan Elmander and Fabrice Muamba, you have to say that’s a whole lot of wasted money.”

- “Some idiots pulled an advertising hoarding off the back of the stand and flung it through the crowd, causing injury to our own fans!”

Disagree? Have your say on Wigan 0-0 Bolton in the comment box below…

Watch Wigan 0-0 Bolton video highlights here

Sources: Burnden Aces, The Wanderer, BBC 606, The Bolton News, Bolton Banter, Rivals, Bolton Wanderers Mad

Related articles by Zemanta

• Portsmouth 1-0 Bolton Wanderers: The fans’ view (mannyroad.com)
• Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Aston Villa: The fans’ view (mannyroad.com)

Have your say on Wigan Athletic 0-0 Bolton Wanderers in the comment box below…