Is this a good enough reason to keep Gary Megson?
Sunday February 15th, 2009
- Image via Wikipedia
How Alex Ferguson almost changed my mind about the Bolton manager
I’m keen for my view that Gary Megson should be sacked at the end of the season, even if we do stay up, to be proven wrong. Mainly because I want to see my team win and get behind them.
As well as asking my readers for reasons why I’m wrong, I’ve also been actively searching for excuses to change my mind. Here’s the nearest I came last week…
The Daily Mail reported that an incredible 923 managers have been and gone from clubs in the English league since Alex Ferguson took charge at Manchester United in 1986.
Just analysing the clubs in the Premier League, it’s certainly possible to see correlation between the number of managers and the level of success enjoyed during that period, i.e. that the fewer managers you’ve had, the more successful you’re likely to be.
Ferguson himself is the most obvious example. Elsewhere, only two managers have left Arsenal during Ferguson’s reign, and just four have departed Anfield.
In contrast, teams who it’s fair to say have underachieved over the last 20 years – Spurs, Newcastle, Man City – average 12 managers waving goodbye.
The anomalies in this theory, i.e. club’s who’ve enjoyed relative success in spite of a large turnover of managers – Chelsea (11), Fulham (12), Wigan (12) – have in common the presence of chairmen/owners who have been especially generous with the cheque book in recent years.
So where do Bolton sit in all this? Six managers have left Burnden/the Reebok in the last 23 years, which means only United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Middlesbrough have had fewer managers (West Ham and Aston Villa have had the same).
The conclusion would seem to be that calling in the hangman as quickly as Chelsea and Portsmouth did last week, and Blackburn did earlier in the season, is not necessarily in the best long-term interests of the club.
Having said that, if that logic had always been applied at Bolton, then Roy McFarland and Sammy Lee would both have lasted longer than they did. After all, what’s worse, not backing a manager for long enough or giving the wrong manager too much time?
What these figures actually suggest to me is not that we should blindly back Megson in the hope that loyalty will stand us in good stead, but that having made two bad appointments, Phil Gartside had better get the next one right.
What do you think? Have your say below…
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